Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 59 videos · 17 channels
Refining and distillates
1 video · 4mKloza estimates about 7 million barrels a day of global refining capacity is lost, almost all to drone impacts in Russia, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, with diesel near $215 a barrel worldwide and $240 in Chicago; European refining capa
Kloza: diesel is an untethered market that could go much higher; gasoline tops out below $5
Kloza says gasoline is fine and will top out, and he does not expect $5 gasoline by the midterms, but on diesel he warns we could look back and say 'remember when we thought $6.47 was high,' calling it an untethered market that could go crazy.
Litigation and regulatory
1 video · 16mCalifornia is seeking structural remedies in Paramount-Warner Bros., including cable-channel divestitures and possible IP separation, with settlement talks in about a month and trial next summer; Meta's child-safety settlement of $17B plus
Live Nation/Ticketmaster loses liability phase; remedies phase could force divestiture
California AG Bonta said a jury found for a bipartisan group of states on every question presented against Ticketmaster/Live Nation in the liability phase. The litigation is bifurcated and now moves to the remedies phase, where the court will determine whether Ticketmaster will be divested or what other remedies will be imposed for the unlawful conduct.
SemiAnalysis: 300+ US data-center moratoriums passed in 18 months but only three projects delayed
More than 300 towns, cities and counties have voted to pause data centers in the past 18 months, yet SemiAnalysis mapped every moratorium against the US project pipeline and found only three projects actually being delayed. The episode also covers behind-the-meter power wins, eight conditions that trigger delays, and New York vs Texas dynamics.
Netflix trades at roughly half Spotify's multiple on similar growth and margin story
Walker frames the relative-value question: both grow revenue low-double-digits with margin expansion, but Spotify trades ~40x earnings while Netflix trades ~20x (with Netflix carrying some leverage vs. Spotify's net cash). McMillan concedes that over five-plus years he could see the argument for Netflix, but keeps higher conviction on Spotify because it has the same financial metrics with less competition, and says Netflix deserves a lower multiple as a more direct competitor to YouTube, which is never going away.
Ibbotson's 50-year forecast validated: global equities ~7% nominal, 5.6% real, adjusted for US survivorship bias
Roger Ibbotson said his 1976 building-block forecast proved almost perfectly accurate in nominal terms out to 2000 and generally accurate across the probability distribution, and that his forward global equity forecast is about 7% nominal and 5.6% real. He explicitly lowers the US figure by roughly 1.5% because US markets were nearly the best performer globally and he cannot assume the US wins again over the next 25 years.