Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 64 videos · 17 channels
Memory pricing
1 video · 44mCramer ranks Intel first and Micron second on supply shortages and discloses buying Micron; memory demand stays unabated even as prices fall.
Cramer: Intel is his top pick and Micron second, both supply-constrained, and he just bought Micron
Cramer says Intel is 'the best stock in show' and Micron number two, telling viewers to own Micron for Intel because both companies' products are in short supply, and discloses he just bought Micron himself. He repeats Intel and Micron as the two club favorites to buy on the post-Fed bounce.
BOJ and yen
1 video · 46mBOJ hiked to 1.25% in a 7-2 split; yen weakened past 157 and Ueda avoided committing to back-to-back hikes.
BOJ hikes to 1.25% but 7-2 split read as dovish, yen weakens past 157
The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25%, a level not seen in decades and its fastest tightening pace since 1990, but two board members appointed by PM Takaichi dissented, which markets interpreted as a dovish signal. The yen weakened through 157 and the JGB curve steepened.
Energy products
1 video · 48mDiesel at record $200 Europe/$220 US, East-West pipeline exports at zero, tanker rates through the roof, and Saudi repairs expected within weeks.
Diesel at record highs on multi-layer supply destruction
Morgan Stanley's Martijn Rats said diesel is at an all-time record high, $200/barrel in Europe and $220/barrel in the U.S., driven by simultaneous problems in crude, shipping, and refining. He said the East-West pipeline's ~4 million b/d of crude exports have dropped to zero and tanker rates are 'through the roof.'
Deluard: ~$300-400B of 'stealth midterm stimulus' flattered earnings and is now rolling off
Deluard quantifies the fading fiscal impulse: SPR releases, individual tax refunds and tariff refunds total roughly $200B, plus about $100B from accelerated AI capex reducing corporate tax collections, for $300-400B of 'stealth midterm stimulus' that is mostly waning. He argues a good chunk went straight into profits — tariff reimbursement directly, and roughly half of the refunds — so ~$200B of aggregate US profit, nearly double-digit, means a large part of the earnings growth supporting the market rests on fiscal stimulus that will not be renewed next year.
Morgan Stanley expects two more Fed hikes (December and March), then a hold through 2027
Andrew Sheets says the Fed's language that it had removed 'a dose of accommodation' and was hard-pressed to call conditions restrictive shifts the debate toward more tightening; Morgan Stanley economists now expect quarter-point hikes in December and March taking the target range to 4.25-4.50%, held there through the rest of 2027, driven by resilient earnings/loan growth, inflation categories still above 3%, and geopolitical/energy second-round effects like airline tickets.