Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
The substantive X agenda was the AI and semiconductor rebound, optical policy, Hormuz relief, SpaceX earnings and Novo's buried trial detail; repeated headline relays were discounted.
Themes on this desk
Compute proof and hedges
DOCN inference growth supplied operating proof while the reported Burry changes preserved selective downside exposure.
Optical rerouting
The proposed FCC action could shift future designs, but AAOI's ramp and non-Chinese capacity must validate the chase.
Products over crude
Refining-cycle research stayed constructive even as the Iranian side disputed the US negotiation premise and MPC's Q3 slope cooled.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Inference software is taking value from undifferentiated GPU rental
TheValueist highlighted DigitalOcean's almost 800% inference-services growth, 30-fold token-volume increase and move toward routing, agents and data services.
growing 212%, inference-services growth of almost 800%, a 30x increase in Inference Engine token volume over 60 days, open-weight models
The value pool may be shifting from raw GPU access to the software and control plane that makes inference usable.
Watch Inference mix, token growth, RPO conversion, list pricing and gross margin.
Source →Refining exposure can outlast a crude-price relief move
TheValueist argued that record refining margins can persist for at least a year across VLO, MPC, PSX and DINO despite diplomacy-driven crude volatility.
$VLO $MPC $PSX $DINO TLDR: Refining will be a great place to be for at least the next 12 months.
Product scarcity and refinery capacity, not crude alone, determine downstream earnings.
Watch Crack spreads, refinery uptime, product inventories and Q3 capture.
Source →The optical ban is proposed, and replacement capacity is scarce
The AI Investor said a proposed FCC action could redirect demand toward COHR, LITE, AAOI and MRVL but also raise hyperscaler costs and near-term supply pressure.
(Reuters) This is currently a proposed FCC action, not a finalized ban.
The headline changes supplier shares only if non-Chinese capacity and qualification can absorb the displaced volume.
Watch Final FCC scope, customer qualification, 800G/1.6T capacity and supplier margins.
Source →CagriSema missed HbA1c non-inferiority versus tirzepatide
TacticzHazel highlighted REIMAGINE 4: CagriSema met weight-loss non-inferiority but missed HbA1c non-inferiority, which the author called its second head-to-head loss this year.
15.2% weight loss for CagriSema vs. 15.8% for tirzepatide at 68 weeks. On HbA1c, it did not hit non-inferiority.
The result weakens the best-in-class product case even as Novo's near-term guidance improved.
Watch Full REIMAGINE 4 data, label path, launch timing and competitive share.
Source →A third-party account reported Burry extending selected shorts
Unusual Whales reported that Michael Burry exited MSFT longs and calls, closed ORCL shorts and puts, remained short PLTR, rolled NVDA puts and rolled a QQQ short.
puts, but remains short the stock • Rolled Nvidia, $NVDA, puts into June 2027, with strikes in the low $100
The reported mix is selective rather than a blanket AI short, but the captured row is not Burry's primary disclosure.
Watch Any primary filing or statement, option expiries and whether the reported shorts remain open.
Source →