Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Retail sentiment is heavily focused on the memory cycle peak debate, GOOGL's upcoming earnings, and GameStop's corporate actions.
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by score · day changeAlphabet's potential GAAP earnings impact from SpaceX stake
Alphabet's Q2 earnings may include a ~$70B unrealized gain from its ~5-6% stake in SpaceX, which could add up to $4.50 to GAAP EPS, significantly exceeding the $2.89 consensus estimate.
After tax and share count it could be up to and additional $4.50 to EPS on top of the $2.89
A headline-grabbing GAAP earnings beat could drive short-term bullish momentum for GOOGL, potentially shifting investor focus away from concerns regarding AI capital expenditure.
Watch Monitor the Q2 earnings release to see if the SpaceX gain is reported through the income statement or Other Comprehensive Income (OCI).
Source →Micron's peak earnings cycle risk
Micron is currently printing record margins (86%) due to a memory shortage, but the author argues this is a cyclical peak that will reverse as massive committed capital from competitors (Samsung, SK Hynix, CXMT) hits the market in 2028-2029.
When it does, margins do not glide lower, they fall off a cliff, because 86% gross margins in a capital
The market's low P/E multiple for Micron suggests investors are already pricing in a peak earnings scenario, implying significant downside risk if the cycle turns.
Watch Monitor DRAM average selling prices; the first quarter of decline is the identified trigger for the cycle reversal.
Source →South Korean leverage restrictions on single-stock ETFs
The South Korean government is implementing strict new rules for single-stock leveraged ETFs, including a tripling of the minimum cash deposit requirement to 30 million won by August 5 and a ban on using stocks/bonds as collateral by August 19.
* **August 5:** The minimum cash deposit required to trade single-stock leveraged ETFs will jump from 10 million won to
These measures are designed to curb market volatility and could significantly reduce liquidity and speculative activity in Korean tech stocks, potentially impacting broader memory sector sentiment.
Watch Monitor trading volume and volatility in Korean tech stocks following the August 5 and August 19 implementation dates.
Source →GameStop executes massive share buyback via 13D filing
GameStop utilized ~$3.97B in working capital to acquire ~39M shares at an average strike of ~$101.33, effectively reducing the float.
The total consideration paid to acquire the 39,046,658 shares underlying the Put/Call Pairs was $3,965,077,113.19.
This large-scale buyback signals management's confidence in the company's valuation and creates potential upward price pressure.
Watch Observe price action following the float reduction.
Source →Netflix transparency concerns
Netflix is reducing transparency by redefining 'engagement' metrics and cutting viewership report frequency from twice to once per year, coinciding with a reliance on price and ad-driven revenue growth.
Now the catch, in the same letter, Netflix is redefining "engagement" away from raw hours **("not all hours are equal")**,
Reduced disclosure may mask slowing organic viewership growth, potentially signaling that the company is retiring metrics that no longer flatter its performance.
Watch Observe if future revenue growth continues to decouple from engagement metrics in subsequent filings.
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