Ideas
Stablecoin adoption is practical crypto entry.
Businesses and consumers increasingly accept stablecoins even when they are wary of 'crypto'; stablecoin rails are the practical path for crypto/fintech adoption and business interest is very strong.
Tempo will unlock agentic onchain commerce.
Stripe's Tempo blockchain/payment network should unlock autonomous agentic commerce onchain; businesses will onboard day one, it can own a large share of the agent space and value capture at the infra layer, and apps with distribution will settle on Tempo over the next 12-24 months.
Stripe is winning fintech-crypto-AI convergence.
Stripe is winning the fintech/crypto/AI intersection; its top-down distribution, payment APIs, AML tools, Tempo and Link push blockchain/stablecoins into its customer base and position it for agentic commerce.
Brazil is very bullish crypto adoption market.
Brazil is one of the most bullish jurisdictions for crypto adoption, with strong bank attendance and adoption momentum exceeding almost anywhere else.
Canton is winning institutional blockchain adoption.
Permissioned, bank-driven chains like Canton are now winning institutional adoption more than Ethereum and Solana, with banks and traditional firms attending crypto events and reaping rewards.
Brazilian neobanks can become next Revolut.
Brazilian neobanks are crushing it and can scale from roughly $100M valuations to $10B, becoming the next Revolut; growth capital should back them.
Stablecoin-backed cards are crushing it.
Stablecoin-backed card companies are crushing it and expanding into full-on ramp competitors, making them attractive growth investments.
Agent-driven crypto apps offer huge opportunity.
Most AI+crypto infrastructure built over the last two years failed; value is more likely to accrue to applications and APIs that use crypto rails, especially agent-driven applications and autonomous businesses onchain.
Crypto AI token cycle may revive.
Mike thought an AI altcoin cycle would occur in 2024-25; it was wrong or early, but he sees a decent chance it revives and is considering small-cap crypto AI punts.
BitTensor is rare AI-crypto infrastructure success.
Apart from BitTensor, much of the AI/blockchain infrastructure built over the past two years has not worked; BitTensor is a rare exception that has actually worked.
Hyperliquid succeeded by targeting DEX niche.
Hyperliquid is an example of a chain that succeeded by targeting a specific niche, DEX trading, supporting the idea that focused chains can win.
Radix targets agent microtransaction payments.
Radix is attempting ultra-scalable payments for agent microtransactions, such as paying a fraction of a cent per webpage call, which is a plausible niche for agentic commerce.
Payment chains face weak fee monetization.
Payment chains are incentivized not to monetize via fees because higher fees make the product worse and less competitive; the chain may end up more like a utility, meaning fee-based value capture is weak.
Sector-specific L1s are replacing general-purpose chains.
The general-purpose L1 approach has failed; chains are coalescing around sector-specific optimization, with Ethereum dominant in borrow/lend, Solana leaning into trading and RWAs, and Canton/Solana carrying RWA adoption.
Stablecoin neobanks are obvious big winners.
Banks will not build stablecoin-first because it is too disruptive to their strategic position; stablecoin neobanks are an obvious category with a few eventual winners, and they will be a huge distribution channel for DeFi.
DeFi becomes backend for stablecoin neobanks.
DeFi is doubted but will work; stablecoin neobanks will use DeFi on the backend, the DeFi mullet, creating huge distribution for DEXs and borrow/lend protocols and helping crypto assets become collateral.
Morgan Stanley expands crypto via E*TRADE.
Morgan Stanley rolled out crypto trading on E*TRADE and should become a much bigger player in crypto distribution.
Revolut is clear European fintech winner.
Revolut is the clear European fintech/crypto winner; it offers advanced crypto buying and sending, is already massive, will IPO, and there is room for even more Revolut-like and beyond-banking products.
On Chain City offers ID plus finance.
On Chain City is a portfolio company like Revolut but with ID and visas from across the world in one app plus financial services, giving it a differentiated use case.
Archa Money solves global business banking.
Archa Money is a portfolio company addressing business banking pain across US and non-US customers; business banking remains underserved and cross-border needs are growing.
Global cross-border fintech demand is massive.
Banks likely will not use agents to deliver faster, better services, while fintechs can; since agents improve service delivery, financial services are in trouble and fintechs should grow while banks shrink.
Brex and Ramp are fast-growing B2B fintechs.
Brex and Ramp are very popular US B2B fintechs growing as fast as AI and expanding into full B2B banking, with Ramp eating regular bank services.
Fintech is category to watch.
Fintechs are the category to watch because banks will drag their feet and crypto/stablecoins directly disrupt banks' income streams and strategic place in the value chain.
Traditional banks are structurally disrupted.
Traditional banks will take forever to adapt and are directly threatened by crypto/stablecoins because crypto disrupts both their income streams and their strategic place at the base of the financial value chain.
Robinhood can become all-in-one financial provider.
Brokerages like Robinhood have great positioning to become the consumer's all-in-one financial provider as finance unbundles and then consolidates.
Banks can't use agents; fintechs can.
Banks likely will not use agents to deliver faster, better services, while fintechs can; since agents improve service delivery, financial services are in trouble and fintechs should grow while banks shrink.
Anchorage leads AI-native agentic banking.
Anchorage announced full agentic banking and is among a new class of AI-native modern banks; there are competitors coming, but this category is emerging.
Lightspark is closest Tempo competitor.
Lightspark launched with off-ramps to 65 countries and card access running on a Bitcoin L2, making it the closest product to Tempo and an impressive new crypto payments offering.
This Bell Curve video, published May 08, 2026,
features Xavier, Myles O'Neil, Mike Ippolito
discussing STABLECOINS, TEMPO, STRIPE, EWZ, CANTON, Brazilian neobanks, Stablecoin-backed cards, Agent-driven crypto applications, Crypto AI tokens, TAO, HYPE, XRD, Payments chains, SOL, ETH, Stablecoin neobanks, DEXs, DEFI, Borrow/lend protocols, MS, Revolut, On Chain City, Archa Money, FINX, Brex, RAMP, KBE, HOOD, Anchorage, Lightspark.
28 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Xavier,
Myles O'Neil,
Mike Ippolito
· Tickers:
STABLECOINS,
TEMPO,
STRIPE,
EWZ,
CANTON,
Brazilian neobanks,
Stablecoin-backed cards,
Agent-driven crypto applications,
Crypto AI tokens,
TAO,
HYPE,
XRD,
Payments chains,
SOL,
ETH,
Stablecoin neobanks,
DEXs,
DEFI,
Borrow/lend protocols,
MS,
Revolut,
On Chain City,
Archa Money,
FINX,
Brex,
RAMP,
KBE,
HOOD,
Anchorage,
Lightspark
