Tech Lifts Stocks as Small Caps Rally Anew | The Close 1/15/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | January 15, 2026 at 23:47 | 1:40:22 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Jim Masturzo — CIO, Research Affiliates

Jonathan Chappell — Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

David Bahnsen — The Bahnsen Group Chief Investment Officer

Jamie Dimon — CEO, JPMorgan Chase

Olga Kharif — Senior Crypto Reporter, Bloomberg News

Romaine Bostick — Anchor, Bloomberg

Norah Mulinda — Market Reporter, Bloomberg

Jack Lew — Former U.S. Treasury Secretary; former OMB Director; former U.S. Ambassador to Israel; Professor at Columbia School of International and Public Affairs

Amos Hochstein — Senior Advisor to the President for Energy and Investment

Bonnie Brennan — CEO, Christie's

Summary

Stocks closed higher, led by small caps and chip equipment names after TSMC's capex forecast, while bank earnings and record BlackRock assets supported financials. Guests debated the sustainability of the small-cap rotation, the outlook for AI and energy, Fed independence, and geopolitical risks. Jamie Dimon discussed JPMorgan's $1.5T security/resiliency investment initiative and warned that eroding Fed independence would push rates higher.

U.S. equities rose, with the Russell 2000 outperforming for a ninth straight day.
TSMC's 25% capex increase lifted semiconductor equipment and materials stocks.
Bank earnings and BlackRock's record $14T in assets were in focus.
A crypto market structure bill markup was delayed after Coinbase withdrew support.
Jim Masturzo favored non-U.S. equities, small caps, and short-end rate cuts.
David Bahnsen recommended rotation into small/value/equal-weight, energy, and midstream, while warning of muted AI returns.
Jamie Dimon outlined a $1.5T security/resiliency investment push and said eroding Fed independence would drive rates higher.
Geopolitical discussions covered Iran, Venezuela, and U.S. military overstretch.

Ideas

Jim Masturzo CIO, Research Affiliates 4:01

Non-U.S. equities attractive on diversification

Diversification is returning to global equities. Non-U.S. stocks have strong fundamental growth, a weakening dollar tailwind, and delivered over 30% returns in 2025, while U.S. large-cap valuations are stretched, making international equities attractive on a relative basis.

Jim Masturzo CIO, Research Affiliates 7:00

Short-end rates to fall on debt

The debt and deficit picture, plus a weakening labor market, will push the Treasury and central banks to lower rates in the short term, especially at the short end of the curve, which should be good for risk assets.

Jim Masturzo CIO, Research Affiliates 7:14

U.S. small caps cheap, rate-cut beneficiaries

U.S. small caps are relatively cheap after years of large-cap outperformance; the large-cap/small-cap valuation ratio is near an all-time high. Continued Fed rate cuts at the short end should support risk assets and small caps in particular.

Jonathan Chappell Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI 20:36

J.B. Hunt Q4 upside from cost cuts

J.B. Hunt should see Q4 upside from company-specific cost initiatives, better-than-seasonal intermodal margins, and relatively optimistic 2Q demand/capacity commentary that provides green shoots and justifies the stock's recent move.

David Bahnsen The Bahnsen Group Chief Investment Officer 40:05

Healthy rotation into small, value stocks

The market is experiencing a healthy rotation, not a correction. The large-cap/small-cap relationship was distorted, and this rotation extends to equal-weighted versus cap-weighted, value versus growth, and out-of-favor sectors, with low correlations and broad participation.

David Bahnsen The Bahnsen Group Chief Investment Officer 41:57

AI trade muted returns, high dispersion

The broad AI trade is likely to see muted returns in 2026 with high dispersion. Nvidia peaked in October, CoreWeave has rallied, and Oracle is well below its September high. Investors must focus on specific ingredients and question the circular funding model of AI capex rather than assuming all AI winners will keep winning.

David Bahnsen The Bahnsen Group Chief Investment Officer 42:56

Energy is a contrarian 2026 play

Energy is a solid contrarian play. The sector is only 2.9% of the S&P 500 versus a historical 10-15%, leaving it too low-weighted. The last time it was this low in 2020, it rallied 120%. Attractive across upstream, midstream, and integrateds.

David Bahnsen The Bahnsen Group Chief Investment Officer 43:33

Integrated oil majors offer unpriced upside

Integrated oil majors are attractive: Chevron should benefit from Venezuela, and both Exxon and Chevron made COVID-era acquisitions that have not been priced in. Their strong balance sheets allow them to gain market share for years.

David Bahnsen The Bahnsen Group Chief Investment Officer 44:41

Midstream energy has attractive yield spreads

Midstream energy is an under-discussed story with attractive yield spreads. People love to hate midstream, but it should benefit as part of the broader energy opportunity.

Jamie Dimon CEO, JPMorgan Chase 51:41

Security/resiliency investment theme is long-term

The U.S. and its allies are too reliant on potential adversaries for critical security items. JPMorgan is committing $1.5T over 10 years to security and resiliency, driving investment in rare earths, active pharmaceutical ingredients, military production, drones, cyber, satellites, and shipbuilding. Interest is strong and the total may exceed $1.5T.

Jamie Dimon CEO, JPMorgan Chase 66:05

Fed independence erosion drives rates higher

Erosion of Federal Reserve independence through political pressure or lawsuits would drive interest rates higher, not lower, because it undermines confidence in the central bank.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 15, 2026, features Jim Masturzo, Jonathan Chappell, David Bahnsen, Jamie Dimon discussing Non-U.S. equities, Short-term U.S. Treasuries, IWM, JBHT, RSP, Value stocks, AI trade, XLE, XOM, CVX, AMLP, U.S. security/resiliency investments, TLT. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jim Masturzo, Jonathan Chappell, David Bahnsen, Jamie Dimon · Tickers: Non-U.S. equities, Short-term U.S. Treasuries, IWM, JBHT, RSP, Value stocks, AI trade, XLE, XOM, CVX, AMLP, U.S. security/resiliency investments, TLT