Amos Hochstein

Physical shortages of oil and oil products are worsening and will spread from poor to middle-income to developed countries, creating a cliff by end of the month. Tankers are not moving, physical Brent barrels are trading far above paper prices ($115-$177 vs ~$110), and the divergence between paper and physical will likely resolve with physical prices moving higher. This will drive up the cost of crude oil, jet fuel, and diesel, making summer travel and driving very expensive.