JP MORGAN E UBS MANDARAM VENDER, NÓS ESTAMOS COMPRANDO

Summary

The video is a cut from Market Makers discussing Grupo Mateus (GMAT3) after a R$1bn inventory error triggered a roughly 30% stock drop and sell/downgrade calls from UBS, JPMorgan and Santander. Paulo Abreu explains that Market Makers opened a new long position, seeing a high-quality founder-led retailer with dominant Northeast market share, ROIC above cost of capital, and a ~6x earnings valuation versus 10-11x for Latin American peers. He acknowledges near-term pressure from food deflation, lower Bolsa Família transfers, and trading down, plus a key governance/credibility risk, but argues the long-term opportunity is attractive.

• Market Makers opened a new position in Grupo Mateus (GMAT3).
• The stock fell about 30% after a R$1bn inventory write-down/error.
• UBS and JPMorgan issued sell ratings and Santander downgraded the stock.
• Bull case rests on founder quality, high Northeast market share, and ROIC above cost of capital.
• Valuation is cited at ~6x next-year earnings vs 10-11x Latin American retail peers.
• Near-term headwinds include food deflation, lower Bolsa Família transfers, and trading down.
• Key risk is another governance or credibility failure.
• The speaker sees a long-term opportunity despite short-term market panic.