Ideas
Buying FedEx at 52-week high
Kevin is buying FedEx at a 52-week high because he thinks it will go higher. He likes industrials and already has full positions in Caterpillar and RTX. FedEx offers a new industrial name with a recent spin-off, improved efficiency, 10% dividend increases over the past three years, a 2% yield, and it lacks the Amazon-related problems that UPS faces. He believes management deserves a premium and is happy to initiate the trade.
Likes industrials, fully invested in CAT/RTX
Kevin likes the industrials sector and has been rewarded in early 2026. He already holds full positions in Caterpillar and RTX and cannot add more, so he is looking for another name, which led him to FedEx. This is a clear sector preference for industrial exposure.
Wabtec benefits from U.S. manufacturing rebuild
Jim owns Wabtec and is sticking with it despite the risk that a potential Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger could reduce equipment demand. He believes the offset is the rebuilding of the U.S. manufacturing base, which should require more freight traffic and lead to more locomotives being built and railcars repaired by Wabtec.
SLB cheap with seven-year high revenue
Kevin bought SLB as part of a broader late-2024 rotation into industrials and energy, not because of Venezuela. He likes that SLB trades at 1.5x forward sales and 15x forward earnings, below historical averages, while revenues are at seven-year highs. The stock has been moving in the right direction and he expects it to go higher.
Energy/industrials rotation benefits broader market
Kevin started leaning into industrials and energy late last year. He owns Chevron and has been adding to Marathon Petroleum throughout November and December. These names carried the portfolio in 2022 when the tech trade rolled over, and he had been very light in energy for two years with only 3% in Chevron. He feels strongly that this basket is a beneficiary of a broader market rotation.
Avoid E&P, prefer pipelines and refiners
Brian expects a big dispersion in energy because commodity prices are the key driver. If the White House continues to push for $50 oil, and human capital costs remain inflationary, that will dampen price-sensitive E&P and mineral rights/royalty names. He expects those companies to keep buying back shares and keep pencils down because the math doesn't work. For oil exposure, he prefers pipelines and refiners, specifically Valero if it can process heavy crude if Venezuelan supply comes to fruition.
Avoid E&P, prefer pipelines and refiners
Brian expects a big dispersion in energy because commodity prices are the key driver. If the White House continues to push for $50 oil, and human capital costs remain inflationary, that will dampen price-sensitive E&P and mineral rights/royalty names. He expects those companies to keep buying back shares and keep pencils down because the math doesn't work. For oil exposure, he prefers pipelines and refiners, specifically Valero if it can process heavy crude if Venezuelan supply comes to fruition.
Contrarian long crude oil and energy
Jim cites a Goldman Sachs survey showing the highest number of institutional clients bearish on oil and energy since 2020 when oil was negative. He believes such overwhelmingly negative sentiment is a contrarian opportunity. While oversupply has pushed prices lower, better global growth or supply disruptions such as Iran could surprise to the upside. He sees more asymmetric risk for crude oil prices to go higher, and with it the energy sector.
Refiners great; ExxonMobil has strong refining
Jim thinks refiners are a great place to make money, though all refiners are not equal because some are set up for Venezuelan heavy crude while others process lighter WTI or Saudi crude. He expresses this view through ExxonMobil, which has a great refinery business.
Merck covered call for extra cash flow
Kevin owns Merck and sold a 113 call expiring in two weeks with the stock around 111. He thinks Merck must be proactive because it will lose Keytruda in the not-too-distant future, so it is making acquisitions, which he views as fantastic. The covered call brings in additional cash flow on top of the dividend. He entered the name back in April.
This CNBC video, published January 09, 2026,
features Kevin Simpson, Jim, Brian Sullivan
discussing FDX, XLI, WB, SLB, CVX, MPC, XOP, Mineral rights/royalties, AMLP, VLO, WTI, XLE, CRAK, XOM, MRK.
10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Kevin Simpson,
Jim,
Brian Sullivan
· Tickers:
FDX,
XLI,
WB,
SLB,
CVX,
MPC,
XOP,
Mineral rights/royalties,
AMLP,
VLO,
WTI,
XLE,
CRAK,
XOM,
MRK
