Ideas
More cuts than market expects.
Quinn leans toward more Fed cuts than the market has priced because the labor market is weak and the next inflation prints should continue dampening. He likes cash/SOFR futures as a tactical expression.
China-driven silver squeeze may continue.
Felix highlights a generational metals squeeze: China's only silver fund shut subscriptions and now trades at a 42% premium, showing rampant marginal Chinese demand; silver ETF volume matching SPY signals mania. He thinks the squeeze can run longer than expected, making silver a key setup to watch.
Avoid long-term Treasuries on debasement.
Felix sees the bond market as the real bubble after 40 years of petrodollar/export-dollar recycling into Treasuries. Foreign trade partners are no longer recycling into bonds, fiscal debasement continues, and if inflation/nominal GDP reaccelerates, yields will be repriced. He is cautious on owning long-term debt.
Secular gold bull remains intact.
Felix remains secularly bullish gold, a position since late 2022. Gold is an alternative reserve currency, is frontrunning pending liquidity injections from Fed balance-sheet accommodation and yield suppression, and should benefit as petrodollar recycling into bonds fades and central-bank/China demand grows. Positioning is still low versus financial assets, and he does not think the move is done.
Commodities are best area for time.
Quinn expects a secular inflation regime with rolling commodity bubbles for multiple years. After white-knuckling and then de-risking the metals trade, he thinks the commodities area is where time is best spent, with broader commodity opportunity remaining even after oil's run.
Cyclical commodities offer better upside.
Tyler argues global cyclical reacceleration is early. That supports cyclical commodity upside, especially copper and oil, which have more room than technically rich precious and rare-earth metals.
EM and Brazil breaking out.
Quinn sees a massive macro capital rotation; EM and Brazil are breaking out relative to the S&P, supported by global cyclical reacceleration, a weaker dollar, and a shift away from US assets.
AI destroys software scarcity and multiples.
Quinn argues AI has collapsed the marginal cost of software and removed software's scarcity. That pressures software earnings and multiples, and IGV is already in a historic drawdown as capital rotates into real, scarce assets.
AI capex ending Mag 7 bubble.
Tyler thinks AI capex is ending the Mag 7/large-cap tech bubble. These companies are shifting from capital-light free-cash-flow and buyback machines into capital-heavy, levered infrastructure businesses; buybacks are disappearing, free-cash-flow margins are compressing, debt is surging, and 25-30x multiples become harder to justify.
Broad equities not cheap; avoid.
Quinn rejects the argument that the S&P 500 multiple is justified by its composition. As Mag 7 business models become more capital-intensive and free cash flow disappears, 25-30x market/Mag 7 PEs are harder to justify; equal-weight and Russell 2000 are also at historically high multiples, leaving little cheap in equities.
Gold miners leverage gold and crisis.
Felix argues that if debt loses value and the bond market becomes uninvestable, hard-asset producers become alternative stores of value. Gold miners effectively act as sovereign banks and provide leveraged exposure to gold in that regime.
Delta-neutral short software, long metals.
Tyler highlights high thematic dispersion: with crypto dead and many sectors moving independently, a delta-neutral book short software and long metals can generate returns without taking index beta.
Delta-neutral short software, long metals.
Tyler highlights high thematic dispersion: with crypto dead and many sectors moving independently, a delta-neutral book short software and long metals can generate returns without taking index beta.
Bitcoin rallies when Fed cuts into inflation.
Felix thinks crypto is closer to a price bottom than a top. When a Trump-influenced Fed starts cutting below neutral alongside fiscal stimulus, it creates a 2021-like environment; Bitcoin should move, so he favors spot exposure and waiting rather than tactical trading.
Tactically bearish Bitcoin; buy spot only.
Quinn is tactically bearish Bitcoin here. Crypto has no positioning and feels dead, and tactical trading is pointless; either buy spot and ignore it for six months or trade other markets.
This Forward Guidance video, published January 30, 2026,
features Quinn Thompson, Felix Jauvin, tyler_neville_
discussing SOFR futures, SILVER, TLT, GLD, DBC, COPPER, WTI, EEM, EWZ, IGV, XLK, MAGS, SPY, IWM, GDX, XME, BTC.
15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Quinn Thompson,
Felix Jauvin,
tyler_neville_
· Tickers:
SOFR futures,
SILVER,
TLT,
GLD,
DBC,
COPPER,
WTI,
EEM,
EWZ,
IGV,
XLK,
MAGS,
SPY,
IWM,
GDX,
XME,
BTC
