Geo Chen
· Fidenza Macro
· March 23, 2026 at 04:45
· ⏱ 7 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that the next inflationary spike will be broad-based, driven not just by oil but also by supply squeezes in fertilizer, helium, LNG, and petroleum feedstocks, as well as surging shipping costs. The author also reveals they were recently short S&P 500 futures and long oil, positions that were nearly stopped out by a geopolitical news event.
•The coming wave of inflation is expected to be driven by more than just oil prices.
•Key supply squeezes are identified in fertilizer, helium, LNG/LPG, and petroleum feedstocks.
•Surging shipping costs are another major inflationary factor that will be passed on to consumers.
•The author discloses holding short S&P 500 (ES) and long oil positions, which were nearly stopped out by an after-hours news event.
Read time7 min
Length7,650 chars
Categorymacro
Trade Ideas
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
The author discloses an active short position in S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES), which was nearly stopped out by positive geopolitical news, indicating a bearish stance on the broader market.
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
The author discloses an active long oil position, consistent with the article's broader theme of inflationary pressures from commodities. The position was nearly stopped out by news of potential de-es
The author discloses an active long oil position, consistent with the article's broader theme of inflationary pressures from commodities. The position was nearly stopped out by news of potential de-escalation in the Middle East.
This newsletter, published March 23, 2026,
features Geo Chen
discussing ES=F, USO.
2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.