Geo Chen
· Fidenza Macro
· March 19, 2026 at 06:02
· ⏱ 4 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that the United States is being drawn into a conflict with Iran by Israel, which will ultimately be viewed as a sign of America's decline as a superpower. Separately, the author observes a recurring weekly pattern where Wednesday has been a profitable entry point to buy oil and hold it through the weekend, with the latest catalyst being Iran's threats of retaliation against Israel.
•The author frames the current US-Iran-Israel conflict as a strategic trap for the United States, costing it military, fiscal, and political capital.
•This geopolitical event is presented as a historical marker for the decline of the US as a global superpower.
•A market pattern has been observed for three straight weeks: Wednesday has been a buying opportunity for oil.
•The most recent catalyst for oil's strength was Iran's threat to retaliate against Israeli attacks on its natural gas infrastructure.