Geo Chen
· Fidenza Macro
· March 12, 2026 at 07:20
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that oil prices are rising because the market is realizing Iran intends to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for an extended period, a geopolitical reality that is overriding seemingly bearish headlines. This "scorched earth" policy from Iran aims to inflict maximum pain on the global economy.
•Oil prices are rising despite potentially bearish news like Trump's comments on the Iran war and an IEA strategic release.
•The market is pricing in the high probability that Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for a prolonged time.
•Iran's strategy is viewed as a "scorched earth" policy to inflict maximum economic pain on its adversaries.