Geo Chen
· Fidenza Macro
· March 09, 2026 at 02:40
· ⏱ 8 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The escalating Iran war is a major supply shock that will disrupt energy, fertilizer, and commodities far more than markets expect. The author is positioned long commodities (Brent, natural gas, corn) and short equities (ES), expecting further volatility until political pain forces a Trump TACO, though Iran may continue to block the Strait of Hormuz even after a US exit. This creates upside for energy and agricultural commodities and downside for risk assets in the near term.
•Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, causing oil prices to surge and supply disruptions across energy, freight, and fertilizer.
•Author went long Brent on Thursday and is now over $30 in the money on that trade.
•War escalation headlines include Iran missile strikes on Gulf states, US strikes on Iranian vessels, and Kuwait Petroleum declaring force majeure on oil sales.
•ES (S&P 500) is on the brink of breaking five-month support at 6600, reflecting growing risk-off sentiment.
•Author also holds long positions in natural gas and corn due to their dependence on Hormuz-related supply chains (nat gas and fertilizer).
•Author is raising cash by exiting South Korea (EWY) and Global EM (EEM) while retaining Brazil (EWZ), and holds long BTC as a hedge.
Read time8 min
Length8,548 chars
Categorymacro
Trade Ideas
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Author continues to hold Brazil exposure in his long-term portfolio while raising cash from other EM positions.
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
ES is on the brink of breaking 5-month support at 6600 as war escalation pressures risk assets.
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Author believes the Iran war will disrupt energy supply much worse than expected, and the market is beginning to price it in.
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
BTC is showing good relative strength and serves as a hedge alongside commodity and equity positions.
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
A large portion of global natural gas supply goes through the Strait of Hormuz, so a shortage will disrupt supply significantly.
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Corn relies most on fertilizer among the big three ags, and fertilizer supply is disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Author closed the long EWY position as part of raising cash in his long-term portfolio.
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Author closed the long EEM position as part of raising cash in his long-term portfolio.
This newsletter, published March 09, 2026,
features Geo Chen
discussing EWZ, ES=F, BNO, BTC, UNG, CORN, EWY, EEM.
8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.