The end of the bull market or just a pause for precious metals?

=== SUMMARY === - The recent, violent selloff in precious metals is likely a mid-cycle correction within a secular bull market, not a permanent top. The 2006 price action is presented as a historical analog, suggesting a period of consolidation (months to a year) before the uptrend resumes. - A new secular US Dollar bear market is underway, driven by geopolitical factors (de-dollarization, erosion of trust in US-held reserves) and monetary policy. The incoming Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is expected to be more dovish than the market perceives, cutting rates more aggressively and putting further downward pressure on the dollar. === TRADE IDEAS === IDEA [1] TICKER: Gold / Silver DIRECTION: LONG SPEAKER: Fidenza Macro THESIS: 1. THE FACT: The author states the recent 25% collapse in precious metals is a correction within a longer bull market, not the end of it. 2. THE BRIDGE: The long-term drivers for precious metals are strengthening. These include central bank diversification away from the US Dollar (driven by geopolitical risk) and an expected dovish pivot from the incoming Fed chair, which will weaken the dollar. The author believes gold's share of global reserves will continue to rise significantly from current levels. 3. THE VERDICT: Position for a long-term rise in gold and silver. While the near-term may be choppy and range-bound for months to a year, the secular trend is upward. This suggests an opportunity to accumulate on weakness. TIMEFRAME: long-term IDEA [2] TICKER: US Dollar DIRECTION: SHORT SPEAKER: Fidenza Macro THESIS: 1. THE FACT: The author argues that we are in the early stages of a secular dollar bear market, similar to 2002-2008. 2. THE BRIDGE: This is driven by two main forces. First, geopolitical shifts are causing central banks (e.g., China) to actively reduce their US Treasury holdings in favor of gold. Second, the incoming Fed Chair is expected to cut interest rates more aggressively than the market is pricing, reducing the dollar's yield adv

The article argues that the January 2026 collapse in precious metals is a correction within a longer bull market, not a permanent top. The author draws parallels to the 2006 gold correction and subsequent multi-year rally, citing ongoing de-dollarization by central banks (especially China) and expectations that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will cut rates aggressively as key supportive drivers. He anticipates gold and silver will trade in a wide range for months before eventually moving higher. • The recent precious metals selloff is viewed as a correction within a secular bull market, not the end. • The 2006 gold correction (25% drop) is presented as an analog, followed by a five-year bull run. • Current drivers include de-dollarization, with China reducing Treasury holdings and accumulating gold. • Geopolitical tensions under Trump (Venezuela invasion, Greenland threats) erode trust in US reserve assets. • New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to prioritize rate cuts over balance sheet reduction, pressuring the dollar. • The author expects gold's share of global reserves to rise toward 1970s levels (~50%), implying significant upside.