Current themes of focus

Fidenza Macro · Fidenza Macro · January 12, 2026 at 15:15 · ⏱ 8 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Geopolitical risks, dedollarization, and fiscal dominance will drive markets this year, rewarding long-term holders over active traders. The author expects triple-digit returns in several sectors and explicitly holds positions in EM ETFs EWZ and EWY, while flagging beneficiaries in commodities, defense, precious metals, and non-US equities.
  • •The author holds long-term positions in EWZ (MSCI Brazil ETF) and EWY (MSCI South Korea ETF).
  • •China carried out its largest military exercise to date around Taiwan, raising odds of conflict over the next few years.
  • •Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi may call snap elections to consolidate power and lean into reflation, with policy rates still well below core inflation.
  • •Korea trades in the low-teens forward P/E range, with Samsung at 28x and SK Hynix at 15x earnings — more reasonable than US AI hardware peers.
  • •Brazil's central bank will cut rates from a peak of 15%, providing a tailwind for its equity market despite political uncertainty around Lula's reelection.
  • •The bearish case for Treasuries includes sovereign holders reducing exposure to dollars and fiat, with term premia capping yield declines.
Read time 8 min
Length 8,298 chars
Category macro
Trade Ideas
Fidenza Macro Substack author, Fidenza Macro
SK Hynix is named as a major beneficiary of the HBM bottleneck in AI hardware, with a 15x earnings valuation that is more reasonable than US peers. The article also notes Korea's corporate governance
SK Hynix is named as a major beneficiary of the HBM bottleneck in AI hardware, with a 15x earnings valuation that is more reasonable than US peers. The article also notes Korea's corporate governance reforms as a policy tailwind. Risk: Concentration in EWY at 46% of the index; any slowdown in AI capex could weigh on demand.
000660.KS
Fidenza Macro Substack author, Fidenza Macro
Samsung is named as a major beneficiary of the HBM bottleneck in AI hardware, trading at ~28x earnings. The article highlights that despite strong outperformance, valuations remain more reasonable tha
Samsung is named as a major beneficiary of the HBM bottleneck in AI hardware, trading at ~28x earnings. The article highlights that despite strong outperformance, valuations remain more reasonable than US AI hardware peers. Risk: Memory cyclicality and geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains.
005930.KS
Fidenza Macro Substack author, Fidenza Macro
The author explicitly names EEM as a beneficiary of the EM outperformance theme, alongside EWZ and EWY, citing lower valuations, depressed positioning, and dollar weakness.
The author explicitly names EEM as a beneficiary of the EM outperformance theme, alongside EWZ and EWY, citing lower valuations, depressed positioning, and dollar weakness. Risk: EM outperformance depends on continued dollar weakness and Fed loosening; geopolitical shocks could reverse flows.
EEM
Fidenza Macro Substack author, Fidenza Macro
The article discusses 'high-bandwidth memory bottleneck' in AI hardware, which directly implicates Micron as a major HBM3E supplier alongside SK Hynix and Samsung. The bullish HBM supply-demand dynami
The article discusses 'high-bandwidth memory bottleneck' in AI hardware, which directly implicates Micron as a major HBM3E supplier alongside SK Hynix and Samsung. The bullish HBM supply-demand dynamics should benefit Micron's revenue and margins. Risk: HBM competition and potential oversupply as capacity ramps; customer concentration.
MU
Fidenza Macro Substack author, Fidenza Macro
EM outperformance thesis driven by lower valuations, depressed positioning versus US megacaps, dollar weakness, and Fed loosening. Brazil benefits from central bank rate cuts from 15% and global macro
EM outperformance thesis driven by lower valuations, depressed positioning versus US megacaps, dollar weakness, and Fed loosening. Brazil benefits from central bank rate cuts from 15% and global macro tailwind despite political uncertainty.
EWZ HIGH
Fidenza Macro Substack author, Fidenza Macro
Korea ETF heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix (46% of index), both beneficiaries of HBM bottleneck in AI hardware. Valuations reasonable (Samsung ~28x, SK Hynix ~15x) with policy tailwinds fr
Korea ETF heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix (46% of index), both beneficiaries of HBM bottleneck in AI hardware. Valuations reasonable (Samsung ~28x, SK Hynix ~15x) with policy tailwinds from corporate governance reforms and low-teens forward P/E leaving room for re-rating.
EWY HIGH
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This newsletter, published January 12, 2026, features Fidenza Macro discussing 000660.KS, 005930.KS, EEM, MU, EWZ, EWY. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Fidenza Macro  · Tickers: 000660.KS, 005930.KS, EEM, MU, EWZ, EWY