Fidenza Macro
· Fidenza Macro
· January 06, 2026 at 11:28
· ⏱ 7 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author reflects on taking a two-week break from trading in December 2025, missing strong moves in precious metals and copper, and then recaps his annual performance using R-multiples. Commodities (especially gold) were his most profitable asset class, while equities and FX lost money. He still believes precious metals are in a multi-year bull market and plans to adjust his trading to capture more of the trend, but he offers no current positions or explicit trade recommendations.
•The author closed all positions in mid-December and did not trade for two weeks, missing silver's rally from $62.88 to $82 and copper's move from $5.40 to $6.00.
•Overall, trades mentioned in the newsletter delivered 31.3 R over 120 trades; S&P futures swing trading delivered 31.5 R over 88 trades, producing close to triple-digit percentage returns.
•Commodities generated 24.9 R, with gold alone contributing 15.9 R, making it his most profitable market since 2017.
•Silver was a disappointment – the author barely made money due to oversized positions and overly tight stops in a higher volatility regime.
•Crypto returned 12 R, driven by catching BTC rallies between 80–120k and shorting ETH and digital asset treasuries, but he expects a choppier crypto environment in 2026.
•Equities and FX combined lost 7.2 R, and the author admits he has not found a reliable way to express macro views through equities and ETFs.
Author regrets missing silver's rally from $62.88 to $82 and says he needs to 'adapt my trading style to ensure I capture more of the move' in precious metals, aligning with a bullish silver thesis.
Author regrets missing silver's rally from $62.88 to $82 and says he needs to 'adapt my trading style to ensure I capture more of the move' in precious metals, aligning with a bullish silver thesis.
Risk: Silver is more volatile than gold; the author's sizing issues in silver highlight the risk of large drawdowns in a choppy regime.
Author states 'I still believe we are in a multi‑year bull market in precious metals' and intends to adapt his trading to capture more of the move, implying continued bullish outlook for gold.
Author states 'I still believe we are in a multi‑year bull market in precious metals' and intends to adapt his trading to capture more of the move, implying continued bullish outlook for gold.
Risk: Gold could face headwinds from a stronger USD or rising real yields; the author's past tendency to take profits early suggests momentum may not be sustained.
This newsletter, published January 06, 2026,
features Fidenza Macro
discussing SLV, GLD.
2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.