Geo Chen
· Fidenza Macro
· March 18, 2026 at 05:57
· ⏱ 4 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author previews an upcoming FOMC meeting, highlighting its importance in determining the Fed's policy reaction to higher oil and food prices. The key question is whether the Fed's statement and dot plot will justify the recent hawkish pricing in short-term rates or trigger a reversal.
•The FOMC meeting will reveal whether the Fed will prioritize its inflation mandate or its growth mandate amid rising commodity prices.
•Global short-end rates have priced in a much more hawkish Fed policy path over the past two weeks.
•The market is watching to see if the Fed's forward guidance validates current market pricing or acts as a catalyst for a reversal in short-term rates.