Alexander Campbell
· Campbell Ramble
· April 29, 2026 at 23:44
· ⏱ 17 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The oil market is in a deep physical deficit due to Gulf conflict and OPEC fracturing, with inventories drawing rapidly and backwardation signaling extreme near-term tightness. This will cascade into higher fertilizer and agricultural prices, while US energy producers (especially LNG) are structural winners. The author is long crude and agricultural futures, short nominal bonds, and recommends VG and CRK as top picks in the US gas/LNG space.
•Total OPEC production collapsed from 28.5 mb/d in Q3 2025 to 20.8 mb/d in March 2026, down 8 mb/d.
•Global supply fell from ~103 mb/d in mid-2025 to below 98 mb/d and heading lower.
•Middle East floating storage hit record highs as onshore logistics through the Gulf are disrupted.
•Asia ex-China onshore stocks dropped from ~600 mb in January to below 540 mb by April, a 60+ million barrel drawdown in three months.
•US SPR stands at 398 mb with ~248 mb usable runway; at 7.1 mb/week draw, that's ~8 months of flow, but realistically only 4-5 months of meaningful releases.
•Brent prompt spread surged from sub-$1 in November 2025 to $6.52 in April, reflecting extreme physical tightness.
•The 3-2-1 crack spread nearly doubled from ~$28 to $52.80, indicating product markets are even tighter than crude.
•UAE left OPEC and has 1.4 mb/d of spare capacity that will come online, bearish for OPEC discipline but bullish for global supply eventually.
Read time17 min
Length17,192 chars
Categoryfinance
Trade Ideas
Alexander CampbellFounder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Venture Global is a top pick for playing the US energy dominance theme, benefiting from widening gas price spreads and LNG export growth; its contract overhang resolution could be a catalyst.
Alexander CampbellFounder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Comstock Resources is a levered play on US natural gas, positioned near LNG export infrastructure with a clean balance sheet; expected to benefit from rising LNG demand and gas price recovery.
Alexander CampbellFounder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Author expects further oil price increases due to physical supply deficit from Gulf conflict, OPEC fracturing, and inventory draws, with a structured options position to benefit from upside while hedg
Author expects further oil price increases due to physical supply deficit from Gulf conflict, OPEC fracturing, and inventory draws, with a structured options position to benefit from upside while hedging tail risk.
This newsletter, published April 29, 2026,
features Alexander Campbell
discussing VG, CRK, WTI.
3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.