Alexander Campbell
· Campbell Ramble
· April 12, 2026 at 23:24
· ⏱ 7 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Alexander Campbell argues that Trump is executing a Rimland strategy to control global energy chokepoints (Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb) against Iran and China, escalating conflict to a level that will cause sustained volatility in oil, equities, and bonds. The article warns that markets have not fully priced the downstream effects on agriculture and that the Fed may be forced to tighten into a supply shock.
•Trump interdicts ships paying Iranian tolls and threatens 50% tariffs on any country supplying weapons to Iran, bringing China into the conflict.
•The Abraham Accords and Trans-Arabian Pipeline aim to bypass Hormuz with a Rimland energy corridor from Saudi Arabia through Jordan to Haifa.
•Europe attempted to cut side deals (France blocked UNSC resolution) but Trump closed the loophole, making the crisis global.
•Crude is up 6%+, stocks down 1%, and the ceasefire from last week is likely to unravel.
•Iran can activate Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb, forcing VLCCs on the long route around Africa, tightening crude supply further.
•Agricultural cascade is mispriced: urea at $700, smallest US wheat crop since 1919, farmers unable to afford fertilizer in March.
Read time7 min
Length7,629 chars
Categoryfinance
Trade Ideas
Alexander CampbellFounder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Author expects increased market volatility due to escalating conflict between US/Iran/China, leading to oil price surges, bond selloffs, and equity declines. VIX calls profit from rising implied volat
Author expects increased market volatility due to escalating conflict between US/Iran/China, leading to oil price surges, bond selloffs, and equity declines. VIX calls profit from rising implied volatility.
This newsletter, published April 12, 2026,
features Alexander Campbell
discussing VIX.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.