Alexander Campbell
· Campbell Ramble
· April 04, 2026 at 21:39
· ⏱ 15 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Alexander Campbell argues that the post-WWII US-led hegemonia (leadership through cost-bearing) is collapsing as allies defect under pressure, particularly Europe's refusal to support US action in the Strait of Hormuz. This breakdown, combined with Russia's energy leverage and China's mercantilist hollowing of manufacturing, portends a chaotic transition toward a more coercive imperial order (arkhe) rather than multipolar cooperation, with severe implications for global trade, energy security, and fertilizer-dependent supply chains.
•The article distinguishes hegemonia (leadership earned by bearing cost) from arkhe (control imposed by force), arguing the US practiced hegemonia for 80 years.
•France joined Russia and China in blocking a UN Security Council resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, then secured its own transit deal for the CMA CGM Kribi container ship via an Iran-approved corridor.
•The UK denied basing rights at Diego Garcia and Fairford, and signed away Chagos Islands sovereignty to Mauritius (which has a Chinese free trade agreement).
•Germany called the Hormuz conflict 'nothing to do with NATO'; Spain labeled it 'illegal and immoral'; Italy denied landing rights at Sigonella.
•The US spent $25 million per day per carrier strike group to secure sea lanes that benefited European exports; 36,000 US dead in Korea, 58,000 in Vietnam with no territorial gains.
•Iran's nuclear program is framed not as a regional issue but as a systemic threat to the non-proliferation regime—if Iran gets a weapon, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt will follow.
•Russia co-opted Europe through gas (Nord Stream) creating dependency; China hollowed US manufacturing via IP theft and currency manipulation; both now back Iran.
•The article warns that multipolarity historically leads to conflict (Peloponnesian War, WWI, WWII) and that the current defection forces the US to either abandon global order or impose empire.