Down Days

Alexander Campbell · Campbell Ramble · May 15, 2026 at 18:48 · ⏱ 15 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Author argues today was a 'good down day' because he added risk in positions where fundamentals strengthened relative to price, specifically wheat, corn, silver, and oil, believing the selloff was driven by unsustainable speculative flows. He also sold bonds and shorted equities to align portfolio construction with a bearish macro view, while reducing overall vol toward an institutional target.
  • US wheat production cut to 42 MMT from 54 MMT in May WASDE; global ending stocks at 275 MMT vs 281 consensus.
  • House passed year-round E15 (218-203), structurally bullish for corn demand but market ignored it.
  • India banned sugar exports, normally bullish, but Brazil's Petrobras pricing freeze delays the thesis.
  • Author's portfolio is 30% in gold and silver, creating a duration mismatch with short bond position.
  • Targeting portfolio vol reduction from 20 to 15 over next few months; currently at 18 vol.
  • Hantavirus incubation period caps oil delta for at least another week despite bullish call structures.
  • Author uses GLD and SLV ETFs for precious metals rather than futures due to lack of adequate risk systems.
  • Biggest mistake identified: gap between AI fundamental belief and positioning, and failure to hedge in-the-money silver calls.
Read time 15 min
Length 15,879 chars
Category finance
Trade Ideas
Alexander Campbell Founder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Author explicitly states 'I still punt GLD and SLV instead of futures,' indicating these ETFs are his primary vehicles for gold exposure, which he is long (30% of book) despite duration concerns.
Author explicitly states 'I still punt GLD and SLV instead of futures,' indicating these ETFs are his primary vehicles for gold exposure, which he is long (30% of book) despite duration concerns. Risk: Duration mismatch with rising rates could pressure gold prices; author acknowledges internal dissonance.
Alexander Campbell Founder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Author argues US midstream and LNG names are the 'transmission mechanism into equity-land' for the oil/cascade trade and is buying them, implying sector beneficiaries from sustained elevated oil price
Author argues US midstream and LNG names are the 'transmission mechanism into equity-land' for the oil/cascade trade and is buying them, implying sector beneficiaries from sustained elevated oil prices. Risk: Oil delta capped due to virus uncertainty; peace scenario could unwind thesis.
Alexander Campbell Founder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Fundamentals stronger despite selloff due to US drought, Russian planting issues, and WASDE production cut; speculative washout provides entry.
Alexander Campbell Founder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Duration mismatch with book acknowledged, but added to January call structures as conviction unchanged.
Alexander Campbell Founder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Oil calls held but delta capped due to Hantavirus uncertainty; convexity benefits if virus contained and oil goes vertical.
Alexander Campbell Founder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Fundamental case intact with E15 expansion bullish for demand; long vol provides patience for catalyst timeline.
Alexander Campbell Founder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Author uses SLV as proxy for silver position, added to January call structures, and remains bullish on silver despite short-term losses from in-the-money calls.
Author uses SLV as proxy for silver position, added to January call structures, and remains bullish on silver despite short-term losses from in-the-money calls. Risk: Same duration risk as gold; author notes need to hedge winners proactively.
More from Campbell Ramble

This newsletter, published May 15, 2026, features Alexander Campbell discussing GLD, AMLP, WEAT, SILVER, WTI, CORN, SLV. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Alexander Campbell  · Tickers: GLD, AMLP, WEAT, SILVER, WTI, CORN, SLV