Alexander Campbell
· Campbell Ramble
· May 14, 2026 at 05:28
· ⏱ 9 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that the hantavirus outbreak, while less contagious than COVID, is far more deadly and could trigger renewed lockdowns, creating downside risk for oil demand. He has sold a portion of his oil futures to hedge his long call position but remains structurally bullish on oil due to supply constraints. The article also critiques AI chatbot safety filters for hindering research on the virus.
•Hantavirus has an estimated R0 of 2.7 on a cruise ship, but population R0 may be ~0.5, implying self-extinction if no intervention.
•The author estimates hantavirus is ~50x more deadly than COVID (fatality rate ~33%) and ~7x less contagious (not airborne).
•He sold ~15% of his oil futures book to hedge his long call position, making his portfolio neutral to a down move in oil prices.
•He is not selling agriculture positions, reasoning that lockdowns would not disrupt food supply chains as severely as fuel demand.
•AI chatbots (Claude, GPT, Grok) repeatedly blocked his attempts to research hantavirus data, citing safety filters and alleging social engineering.
•The last WHO update on hantavirus across 23 countries with ~40% fatality rate was 6 days ago, suggesting a slow public health response.