Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· February 28, 2026 at 12:45
· ⏱ 4 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author observes that the market consensus is overwhelmingly positioned for any potential geopolitical conflict, such as with Iran, to be short-lived. This is reflected in investor positioning, which is underweight assets that would benefit from an extended conflict, and in the modest market reactions to date.
•The market consensus believes any potential war will be brief.
•Investors are generally underweight assets that would benefit from a prolonged conflict.
•Market moves have been modest, suggesting war risk is not fully priced in.
•An anecdotal conversation with senior equity PMs confirms this prevailing complacent view.