Earning Into It

Bob Elliott · Nonconsensus · February 26, 2026 at 11:20  | Read on Substack ↗
TLDR
The article argues that despite high valuations, relentless double-digit earnings growth in the US equity market, led by companies like NVDA, is likely to allow stocks to 'grow into' their valuations. With policy turning incrementally supportive and expectations remaining subdued, it becomes difficult to justify a short-term bearish stance on US equities. • US equity market has stabilized after years of appreciation, while earnings growth continues to power ahead. • NVDA's recent earnings print contributes to a streak of five consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500. • If stock prices do not rise further, strong earnings growth could quickly bring valuations down to pre-COVID levels. • Near-term earnings expectations remain reasonably subdued despite the strength seen in recent quarters. • The US economy is seeing some headwinds from 2025 fade, with dissaving-driven expansion boosting corporate profits. • Earnings growth is broad-based, with companies having significant international sales showing the fastest pace. • The author concludes that with double-digit earnings growth and supportive policy, it's tough to make a short case for US equities.
Full Analysis

{ "tldr": { "summary": "The article argues that despite high valuations, relentless double-digit earnings growth in the US equity market, led by companies like NVDA, is likely to allow stocks to 'grow into' their valuations. With policy turning incrementally supportive and expectations remaining subdued, it becomes difficult to justify a short-term bearish stance on US equities.", "key_points": [ "US equity market has stabilized after years of appreciation, while earnings growth continues to power ahead.", "NVDA's recent earnings print contributes to a streak of five consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500.", "If stock prices do not rise further, strong earnings growth could quickly bring valuations down to pre-COVID levels.", "Near-term earnings expectations remain reasonably subdued despite the strength seen in recent quarters.", "The US economy is seeing some headwinds from 2025 fade, with dissaving-driven expansion boosting corporate profits.", "Earnings growth is broad-based, with companies having significant international sales showing the fastest pace.", "The author concludes that with double-digit earnings growth and supportive policy, it's tough to make a short case for US equities." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

Length 244 chars
Category finance
More from Nonconsensus