Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· February 23, 2026 at 11:24
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author questions the sustainability of the US economic expansion, highlighting that 2025 saw the weakest household demand in some time. This weakness, driven by slowing wages and inflation, casts doubt on whether the 'dissaving driven expansion' can continue, suggesting the market's focus on narratives like AI and tariffs has missed the real economic driver.
•Household demand in 2025 was the weakest in a significant period.
•Slowing wages and price hikes have negatively impacted real consumer spending power.
•The sustainability of the economic expansion, which has been fueled by dissaving, is now in question.
•The author suggests that popular macro narratives (AI, tariffs, debasement) have overshadowed the true primary driver of the US economy.