Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· February 19, 2026 at 10:53
· ⏱ 2 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
=== SUMMARY ===
•Multiple second-tier data points (employment, housing, production, demand) collectively indicate a strengthening US economy with positive underlying momentum.
•The upcoming 4Q25 GDP report is expected to be strong, reflecting genuine economic improvement rather than accounting anomalies, suggesting a positive trajectory heading into 2026.
Summary
The author, a self-described macro data nerd, observes that a recent batch of second-tier US economic data points towards an improving economic trajectory for the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026.
•Recent second-tier hard data on the US economy has been released.
•The data largely indicates an improving economic trajectory.
•This positive trend is expected to continue through the end of 2025 and into early 2026.