Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· February 16, 2026 at 23:06
· ⏱ 2 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
=== SUMMARY ===
•The author maintains a bullish, pro-growth stance on the US economy, viewing the recent stock market dip and bond rally as a likely overreaction not supported by fundamental data like strong employment.
•The author identifies a key upcoming event: a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs, with insider odds suggesting the tariffs may be struck down, creating opportunities in affected sectors.
•The author highlights the significant outperformance of developed markets (ex-US) versus US markets year-to-date and expresses skepticism about the narrative of strong foreign investment flowing into the US.
Summary
The author highlights a disconnect between market behavior and economic data, noting that US stock and bond markets reacted to a perceived negative growth shock last week despite strong payrolls figures. The upcoming week's hard data is positioned as a critical test for this pessimistic market sentiment.
•US stock and bond markets reacted as if a negative growth shock occurred last week.
•This market sentiment contrasts with recent positive payrolls data.
•The author anticipates that new hard data in the upcoming week will challenge the market's pessimistic view.