Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· February 25, 2026 at 11:22
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author reflects on a successful nonconsensus call from the previous summer, where they argued that Australian markets were underpricing the country's coming economic strength. Since then, short-term interest rate, bond, and currency markets have moved to price in this economic divergence.
•Last summer, the author made a nonconsensus call that the Australian economy would outperform expectations.
•The thesis was based on the unique structure of the Australian economy.
•Since that call, Australian STIR, bond, and currency markets have significantly appreciated, reflecting the economic strength.
•The article suggests that this previously identified opportunity has now been largely priced in by the market.