OpenAI's New Funding Round May Bring in $100 Billion | The China Show 2/19/2026
Speakers
Chris Weston — Head of Research, Pepperstone Group
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- OpenAI Funding Super-Cycle: OpenAI is finalizing a funding round exceeding $100 billion, with a post-money valuation of ~$850 billion. Key backers include Amazon ($50B), SoftBank ($30B), and Nvidia ($20B).
- Memory Chip Pricing Power: South Korean memory giants (Samsung/SK Hynix) are exercising massive pricing power, with HBM4 chips priced 20-30% higher than HBM3, projecting 60% profit margins.
- Japan Valuation Warning: The Nikkei is trading at 24x forward earnings (comparable to Nasdaq) and sits 20% above its 200-day moving average, signaling a high risk of technical mean reversion despite strong inflows.
- Geopolitical Risk Premiums: Oil markets are carrying a $10-$20 premium solely due to US-Iran tensions; fundamentals (supply/demand) do not support current prices.
- Fed/Macro Divergence: The Fed minutes lean hawkish (potential for hikes), while Asian central banks (Indonesia/Philippines) face currency pressure preventing cuts.
Trade Ideas
Local media reports HBM4 (High Bandwidth Memory) pricing is being set at ~$700, which is 20-30% higher than the previous generation (HBM3). Samsung's profit margins on these chips are estimated at 60%. This confirms a "super-cycle" in memory chips driven by AI demand (Nvidia/Apple). The pricing power has shifted entirely to the suppliers. Higher prices + higher volumes = exponential earnings growth (analysts see 30 trillion won operating profit). LONG. These companies are the "pick and shovel" plays with expanding margins. Chris Weston notes these stocks are consolidating at high levels; requires volume to break out.
The Nikkei is trading at 24x forward earnings (historically high) and the Topix is trading >20% above its 200-day moving average. Historically, a 15% deviation from the moving average triggers a pullback; we are now at 20%. Valuation is no longer the attraction; the market is priced for perfection. AVOID or SHORT for a technical correction. The "cheap Japan" thesis is dead; investors are now buying expensive growth. Continued foreign inflows (largest since October) could keep prices irrational longer than solvent.
OpenAI is closing a funding round >$100B. SoftBank is reportedly investing $30B, Amazon $50B, and Nvidia $20B. This is not just an investment; it is a capital expenditure moat. For SoftBank (SFTBY), this validates their AI strategy. For Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA), it locks in OpenAI as a customer for compute and chips, recycling the capital back into their own revenue streams. LONG. SoftBank specifically is reacting positively to the news as a direct beneficiary of the valuation markup. Regulatory scrutiny on Big Tech consolidation of AI power.
Paul Allen
Reporter, Bloomberg
Wesfarmers (Australian retail giant) warned that cost-of-living pressures are creating an uneven consumer environment, despite a slight earnings beat. Wesfarmers owns Bunnings and Kmart—the "canaries in the coal mine" for Australian consumption. If they are flagging consumer weakness, discretionary spending is hitting a wall. SHORT. The stock is already sinking on the news, signaling the market is pivoting from "earnings beats" to "forward guidance fears." Rate cuts by the RBA could reignite consumer spending.
Japanese chip equipment maker Adventest reported a cyber security incident (ransomware) and unauthorized network access. Cyber incidents in critical supply chains (chip equipment) can cause delivery delays. The stock is down ~2% on the news. WATCH. If the financial impact is deemed minimal, this is a "buy the dip" opportunity in a critical semi-cap equipment player. If production is halted, it's a short. Extended downtime affecting quarterly delivery guidance.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 19, 2026, features Lanting Tu, Hiroyuki Sano, Natasha Mascarenhas, Paul Allen discussing SSNLF, NIKKEI, TOPIX, SFTBY, AMZN, NVDA, WES, ATEYY. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Lanting Tu, Hiroyuki Sano, Natasha Mascarenhas, Paul Allen · Tickers: SSNLF, NIKKEI, TOPIX, SFTBY, AMZN, NVDA, WES, ATEYY