Name: BRICS Readies 'Next Battle In WW3'; Ultimate Gameplan Revealed | Doomberg
Uploaded: 2025-09-05T22:34:09+00:00
Duration: 2507 s

Speakers

Doomberg — Energy & commodities research collective

Summary

Doomberg joins David Lin to argue that the world is bifurcating into a Western dollar-based bloc and a BRICS/global-south bloc, with the West losing India and Russia defeating economic sanctions. He sees oil markets as well supplied and under-pricing geopolitical risk, while gold should benefit from de-dollarization. In autos, he expects Chinese automakers to gain global share while German and legacy automakers face structural pain.

Xi Jinping's SCO summit and military parade signal a bifurcating world order and a challenge to the Western-led system.
Doomberg says sanctions and tariffs against Russia and BRICS are backfiring and the West has lost India.
Oil markets are not pricing significant geopolitical risk; he sees equilibrium near $56 versus $63-64 and supply returning from multiple sources.
If refining capacity is constrained, crude would fall while gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel would rise.
Gold is seen as a beneficiary of BRICS de-dollarization and its role as a neutral reserve asset.
He expects Fed independence to erode and sees a risk-on market environment.
Norway's energy ties to Europe and potential grid instability are a side risk to watch.
In autos, Chinese producers like BYD are expected to win global growth, while German and legacy automakers face structural decline.

Ideas

Doomberg Head Writer, Doomberg Substack 15:02

Oil well supplied, equilibrium below current

Oil markets are not pricing significant geopolitical risk and physical markets are well supplied. Doomberg's equilibrium price for oil is around $56 per barrel versus the $63-64 then on screen, with supply returning from OPEC, Guyana, Argentina's Vaca Muerta, and potentially Venezuela, while threats to sanction Russian oil are a bluff that will be called. This leaves crude oil biased lower.

Doomberg Head Writer, Doomberg Substack 16:43

Long refined products, short crude

The claim that US refining constraints will cause oil to double is wrong. If refining capacity is constrained, crude oil becomes cheaper because it cannot be processed, while refined products—gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel—become much more expensive. This supports a long refined-products versus short crude oil trade.

Doomberg Head Writer, Doomberg Substack 30:24

Gold benefits from BRICS de-dollarization

Gold is pricing in a unified BRICS and a move away from the Western dollar-based financial system. If BRICS succeeds in escaping that system, gold will have to play a critical role as a neutral reserve asset for settling international trade imbalances. Fed politicization and potential yield curve control reinforce the case.

Doomberg Head Writer, Doomberg Substack 36:04

German autos face structural decline

The German auto sector is a proxy for the decay of European geopolitical power and economic might. Its old model—cheap Russian energy, cheap Eastern European labor, and strong exports to the US and China—is broken. China has superior autos and batteries, the US is raising tariffs, and Power of Siberia 2 permanently impairs German heavy industry. Doomberg expects significant pain and eventual equity wipeout/recapitalization for German automakers, with Volkswagen specifically vulnerable.

Doomberg Head Writer, Doomberg Substack 36:22

Chinese automakers win global growth

China now has a superior auto industry with a huge lead in EVs and batteries. BYD and other Chinese domestic automakers produce vehicles at a scale and cost that is hard to believe, while major legacy automakers are not capitalized to compete only in their home markets. As tariffs block Chinese vehicles from some developed markets, the global south and other markets remain open, so growth should go to Chinese automakers.

Doomberg Head Writer, Doomberg Substack 37:24

Legacy automakers face Chinese competition

Doomberg expects significant pain for big global automakers—Japanese, Korean, American, and European—because they are not capitalized to compete only in their home markets. Tariffs may block Chinese vehicles in the US and Europe, but Chinese automakers can still win the global south, leaving legacy automakers structurally exposed. He names General Motors as an example of a US automaker not capitalized to only compete domestically.

BRICS Readies 'Next Battle In WW3'; Ultimate Gameplan Revealed | Doomberg

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