Stocks Waver at Start of Week Filled With Key Inflation Data

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 08, 2026 at 15:06  |  2:24:13  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Seema Shah — Chief Global Strategist, Principal Asset Management
Jonathan Ferro — Anchor, Bloomberg Television
Janno Lieber — Chair and CEO of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA)
Kit Juckes — Macro Strategist, Société Générale
Earl Davis — Head of Fixed Income, BMO Global Asset Management
Jim Caron — CIO, Portfolio Management, Morgan Stanley Investment Management
Samantha Dart — Head of Digital Assets, Bitwise
Oksana Aronov — Fixed Income Strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management
Barbara Reinhard — Chief Investment Officer, Voya Investment Management
Gil Luria — Technology Strategist at D.A. Davidson
Brian Levitt — Global Market Strategist, Invesco
Kate Kalutkiewicz — Former Trump White House Trade Official
Stephen Stanley — Chief U.S. Economist, Santander US Capital Markets
Yahaira Jacquez — Reuters Video Journalist

Summary

The episode focuses on the week-ahead CPI and PPI releases, their implications for a possible Fed hike, oil and Middle East supply disruptions, rising global bond yields, and AI/data center spending. Guests broadly see U.S. equities as resilient but flag risks from a Fed hiking campaign, a hyperscaler pullback, and elevated energy costs. Fixed income and commodity guests highlight bearish long-end Treasury technicals and tight diesel/refined product markets.

  • Oil and Brent trade near $100 as Middle East attacks and Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep geopolitical risk premium elevated.
  • The Fed decision next week is seen as highly dependent on CPI/PPI, with guests debating whether one or more hikes would threaten equities.
  • Long-end Treasury yields face upward pressure from fiscal spending, hyperscaler issuance, and mortgage convexity selling.
  • Diesel and refined products are viewed as tighter than crude, with Goldman Sachs calling diesel the biggest oil problem.
  • Equities are broadly viewed as supported by strong earnings and resilient labor conditions despite higher yields.
  • AI/data center backlash may slow buildout but also help prevent a bubble, while power bottlenecks favor suppliers such as Bloom Energy and natural gas.
  • Canada's retaliatory tariffs escalate trade tensions but are seen as unlikely to restart negotiations quickly.
  • BOJ rate hike expectations and carry-trade unwinds are driving yen strength, while one host sees dollar-yen returning toward 160 by year-end.
Ideas
Seema Shah Chief Global Strategist, Principal Asset Management 4:32
Bullish equities with modest near-term gains
Equities can withstand Fed uncertainty if earnings stay strong and the micro backdrop remains constructive; near-term months will be rocky but the year should close with only modest gains, with financial conditions tightening either way.
SPY MED
Janno Lieber Chair and CEO of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) 20:08
Oil prices remain supported or drift higher
The U.S. has few short-term tools to reduce Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and hostilities are keeping a lid on supply; oil prices keep grinding higher, and renewed Chinese buying could add further upside risk.
BNO MED
Jonathan Ferro Anchor, Bloomberg Television 26:48
Dollar-yen likely back toward 160
The yen rally is better characterized as a correction of excessively bearish yen positioning rather than a structural turning point; dollar-yen is more likely to move back toward 160 by year-end.
USD/JPY MED
Earl Davis Head of Fixed Income, BMO Global Asset Management 43:09
Mortgage convexity selling drives yields higher
A significant slowdown or deceleration in AI spending is the one thing that could absolutely bring long rates lower, potentially tipping the economy into recession; she is not predicting it but monitoring the pace of AI spend.
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note HIGH
Earl Davis Head of Fixed Income, BMO Global Asset Management 43:09
Mortgage convexity selling drives yields higher
Long bond yields are rising because nominal growth is high; investors are choosing equities over bonds in that environment, and 10-year Treasury yields have room to rise toward 5.25-5.5% before disrupting equities.
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond HIGH
Samantha Dart Head of Digital Assets, Bitwise 81:37
Diesel is the tightest oil product
Refined products, especially diesel, are much tighter than crude because of refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia, very low stocks, and no Chinese export buffer; diesel is the tightest market and the biggest problem.
DIESEL HIGH
Oksana Aronov Fixed Income Strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management 95:50
High yield credit shows late-cycle stress
Credit conditions are showing late-cycle behavior: hyperscaler spreads are double investment-grade spreads, the credit surplus is nearly gone, and high yield is the canary in the coal mine.
U.S. high yield credit MED
Gil Luria Technology Strategist at D.A. Davidson 114:47
Data center limits extend AI cycle
Community pushback and data center construction constraints are slowing AI infrastructure buildout enough to prevent a bubble and extend the cycle; demand still justifies much faster growth from hyperscalers.
AMZN MSFT GOOG MED
Gil Luria Technology Strategist at D.A. Davidson 118:05
Data center power bottleneck lifts energy suppliers
Data centers are increasingly building their own energy infrastructure, creating a new bottleneck around turbines, turbine blades, rotors, Bloom Energy units, and eventually natural gas.
BE UNG MED
Brian Levitt Global Market Strategist, Invesco 142:31
Watch hyperscaler pullback to end cycle
The bull market is likely to end when the bond market rejects AI investment or a hyperscaler says it will not invest anymore; investors should watch for cracks in AI and hyperscaler funding, though they are not visible yet.
SKYY MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 08, 2026, features Seema Shah, Janno Lieber, Jonathan Ferro, Earl Davis, Samantha Dart, Oksana Aronov, Gil Luria, Brian Levitt discussing SPY, BNO, USD/JPY, U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note, U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond, DIESEL, U.S. high yield credit, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, BE, UNG, SKYY. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Seema Shah, Janno Lieber, Jonathan Ferro, Earl Davis, Samantha Dart, Oksana Aronov, Gil Luria, Brian Levitt  · Tickers: SPY, BNO, USD/JPY, U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note, U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond, DIESEL, U.S. high yield credit, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, BE, UNG, SKYY