War in Iran still a good distance away from ending, says Brookings' Michael O'Hanlon

Summary

• Believes the conflict with Iran is in a phase of "fundamental uncertainty" and is likely to last "weeks, not days," extending beyond initial expectations.
• Argues Iran has likely gained the initiative, using a "maritime version of insurgency" (e.g., shutting the Strait of Hormuz) that plays to its historical strengths in asymmetric warfare.
• States the killing of Ayatollah Khomeini and succession by his hardline son made it "pretty unlikely" Iran would back down, locking in a prolonged conflict.
• Expresses skepticism toward analyses suggesting the U.S.-Israeli strategy is working or that the regime is weak due to its dynastic succession, arguing the regime's entrenched revolutionary agenda matters more.
• Notes Iran's militias are decentralized and have prepared for dispersed command and control, making the regime resilient and likely to survive targeted strikes.
• Advises against U.S. threats to create "chaos" in Iran, drawing parallels to the Iraq War and cautioning that chaos does not serve U.S. interests.
• Suggests allies may eventually assist in securing oil passageways because they "need the oil and gas themselves," but need time as they were not consulted on the war.
• Key market implication is a prolonged supply risk in a critical oil chokepoint (Strait of Hormuz), but the speaker provides geopolitical analysis, not direct market forecasts.