How to game out the Fed's next move

Summary

• Steve Liesman expects surging oil prices to affect all three forms of Fed communication today: the statement, forecasts, and press conference, with potential commentary on geopolitical uncertainty.
• Oil prices, approaching $99, are a key concern. A source suggests if the Strait is not open by April 1st, oil could see another, more meaningful "leg up".
• Joe expresses deep concern over "trouble spots" in software and private credit, specifically questioning the real valuation of private loans to the software industry.
• Liesman clarifies the Fed's primary concern is not investor losses but systemic risk to the banking system from private credit, drawing lessons from SVB and the Great Financial Crisis about hidden connections.
• Jim Cramer strongly states he does not want to hear any talk of rate hikes, calling it a "policy mistake" in response to an oil price shock, but cannot rule it out due to hawkish committee members and hot inflation data.
• Bryn argues current inflation is not demand-driven, so Fed rate hikes are an ineffective tool against issues like housing, home health care, and food costs. He believes the Fed's hands are tied.
• Bryn also contends sustained high oil prices have a deflationary effect on consumers and, referencing 2011-2013, argues the Fed should offset this with rate cuts, not hikes.
• Mike counters that the 2011-2013 analogy is imperfect due to different underlying inflation conditions and the shock being post-credit crisis, but agrees it's interesting to see how the Fed frames it.
• Multiple hosts see the upcoming new Fed Chair as a potential game-changer for policy orientation later in the year.