Time To Buy The Dip?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 19, 2025 at 20:30  |  55:41  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

Jonah Van Bourg and Avi Felman debate whether crypto's sharp altcoin selloff is a buying opportunity. Avi argues quality alts and AI coins are beaten down and favors selling BTC to buy alts, while Jonah cautions against catching falling knives. They also discuss Solana's resilience, Litecoin's ETF trade being played out, meme-coin controversies, and the case for high-throughput L1s over L2s/app chains.

  • Crypto sentiment is poor and altcoins are down sharply relative to Bitcoin.
  • Avi favors buying high-quality alts and shorting BTC as a contrarian pair trade.
  • Jonah prefers waiting for tokens to bottom and rally before buying.
  • Solana is viewed positively as a battle-tested high-throughput L1 despite unlock overhang.
  • AI coin leadership has shifted; Virtuals weakened while ARC gained mind share.
  • Litecoin's ETF trade is described as played out.
  • The podcast discusses meme-coin controversies and the need for investor caution.
  • Avi favors high-throughput L1s over L2s/app chains; creator coins are an emerging theme.
Ideas
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 3:08
TAO outperforms on product traction.
TAO is showing relative strength because it launched an interesting product that people are actually trying to use. It has traded back to levels seen a month ago when Bitcoin was around $102K, even though Bitcoin is now lower, making it a pocket of outperformance in a weak alt market.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 3:37
Buy quality alts, short Bitcoin.
Altcoins have been destroyed relative to Bitcoin, with many down around 90% and BTC dominance at 61%, while BTC has gone sideways. He views this as a good time to allocate to high-quality projects with real fundamentals, and he would sell or short BTC to buy alts as a contrarian pair trade.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 3:37
Buy quality alts, short Bitcoin.
Altcoins have been destroyed relative to Bitcoin, with many down around 90% and BTC dominance at 61%, while BTC has gone sideways. He views this as a good time to allocate to high-quality projects with real fundamentals, and he would sell or short BTC to buy alts as a contrarian pair trade.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 9:41
Litecoin ETF trade is played out.
The Litecoin ETF trade is played out at this point; much of the expected premium has already been juiced, and he would not be a huge buyer of LTC here.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 10:01
AI coin mania will return.
He says AI coins are beaten down enough that buying the projects you like and shorting BTC against them is now a reasonable pair trade. He expects AI to recover and still thinks AI mania is coming, but the next iteration may be different from the tokens that just traded up and down.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 11:04
Virtuals loses mind share, avoid.
Virtuals has performed horribly and no longer even bounces when Bitcoin bounces, suggesting persistent selling and lost mind share. He says its no-code agent platform was poor and that he should have sold on any pop, making it an AI token to avoid or sell.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 11:25
ARC gains mind share on product.
ARC rallied roughly 40% off its lows as mind share shifted toward it because it is apparently delivering a better product that people want to use. He cites it as the new AI-coin area gaining market attention, though he does not explicitly say he is buying it.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 18:22
Bitcoin is core holding.
He keeps most of his portfolio in Bitcoin and treats AI coins as a small learning and gambling allocation. This is a core long Bitcoin holding bias rather than an active dip-buying call.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 33:38
Buy Solana dip; unlock clears.
Solana is a battle-tested high-throughput L1 that survived the meme-coin frenzy without being bowled over, and builders of high-throughput apps will continue to choose it. The Libra/Trump memecoin controversy is not Solana's fault, and while a roughly $1.6B unlock is an overhang, once that supply clears he sees it as set up to go higher; he is dip buying and nibbling in the 160s-170s.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 38:42
Creator coins are emerging investment theme.
Creator coins and social tokens are an emerging area: better tooling makes it easy to launch a coin anywhere, tie it to a creator or community without locking value to one platform, and bundle multiple sources of value. He expects more of these to come and says he is trying to invest in the area now.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 51:12
Short L2s, long high-throughput L1s.
The app-chain thesis is dead because seamless integration has not been solved and decentralization no longer drives value. Cosmos and Polkadot are done, L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism are done, and he would short a basket of those versus long a basket of high-throughput L1s.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 51:12
Short L2s, long high-throughput L1s.
The app-chain thesis is dead because seamless integration has not been solved and decentralization no longer drives value. Cosmos and Polkadot are done, L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism are done, and he would short a basket of those versus long a basket of high-throughput L1s.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 51:12
Short L2s, long high-throughput L1s.
The app-chain thesis is dead because seamless integration has not been solved and decentralization no longer drives value. Cosmos and Polkadot are done, L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism are done, and he would short a basket of those versus long a basket of high-throughput L1s.
Up Next

This 1000x Podcast video, published February 19, 2025, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing TAO, ALTCOINS, BTC, LTC, AI-SECTOR, VIRTUAL, ARC, SOL, Creator coins, High-throughput L1s, OP, ARB, ATOM, DOT. 13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg  · Tickers: TAO, ALTCOINS, BTC, LTC, AI-SECTOR, VIRTUAL, ARC, SOL, Creator coins, High-throughput L1s, OP, ARB, ATOM, DOT