Will We Bottom Soon?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 16, 2025 at 17:02  |  45:19  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg discuss a choppy, high-volatility market after tariff-driven swings. They outline range-trading discipline, cash flexibility, and crypto pair trades, including long Hyperliquid and revenue-generating RWA tokens versus short ETH. The conversation also covers BTC versus gold in a multipolar world, gold miners, an IBIT/SPY breakout signal, S&P margin risk from tariffs, and a six-month bullish risk-asset view.

  • Market is in a high-volatility chop after tariff headlines, with BTC testing and holding $75k.
  • Avi prefers playing range extremes, holding cash, and taking profits into strength; he sees BTC chopping between roughly $78k and $92k.
  • Avi is long Hyperliquid and considering rotating Solana into it, citing real revenue and tokenholder value distribution.
  • Avi runs a pair trade: long revenue-generating RWA tokens like Plume, Pendle, Curve, AO, Maker, and Grass versus short ETH.
  • Jonah watches the IBIT/SPY ratio for a breakout above cycle highs as a signal of crypto capital inflows.
  • Debate on BTC vs gold: Avi is bullish gold and miners for 6-12 months, while Jonah argues BTC has higher expected value and gold adds Sharpe.
  • Avi is bullish risk assets over six months but warns S&P multiples and margins may need to reset if tariffs persist.
  • Tariff and China tensions are seen as creating volatility but not necessarily a long-term bearish market.
Ideas
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 1:35
Bitcoin chops; trade extremes, hold cash.
The market has not left the high-volatility regime; Bitcoin is likely to chop between roughly $78k and $92k over the next month, with about 30-40% odds of touching each side. He advises not touching the middle of the range, keeping cash available, and taking profits into strength so he can redeploy on extreme dislocations.
BTC HIGH
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 3:47
Hyperliquid makes real money; rotate from Solana.
Hyperliquid is one of the few crypto projects making money hand over fist and actually distributing value to token holders via legal dividends/buybacks, unlike tokens that only give voting rights. He owns it, likes it, and is debating liquidating Solana to move more capital into Hyperliquid because the project has real legs.
SOL HIGH
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 3:47
Hyperliquid makes real money; rotate from Solana.
Hyperliquid is one of the few crypto projects making money hand over fist and actually distributing value to token holders via legal dividends/buybacks, unlike tokens that only give voting rights. He owns it, likes it, and is debating liquidating Solana to move more capital into Hyperliquid because the project has real legs.
HYPE HIGH
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 5:20
Long revenue RWA vs short ETH.
In a choppy market, he is accumulating revenue-generating RWA/linked tokens such as Plume, Pendle, Curve, AO, Maker, and Grass, betting they eventually change tokenomics to pay back holders, while shorting ETH against the basket because these assets trade lockstep with ETH and ETH could fall further, potentially to $1,000 this year.
PLUME AO SKY GRASS CRV PENDLE HIGH
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 5:20
Long revenue RWA vs short ETH.
In a choppy market, he is accumulating revenue-generating RWA/linked tokens such as Plume, Pendle, Curve, AO, Maker, and Grass, betting they eventually change tokenomics to pay back holders, while shorting ETH against the basket because these assets trade lockstep with ETH and ETH could fall further, potentially to $1,000 this year.
ETH HIGH
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 27:36
Tariffs threaten S&P multiples and margins.
If tariffs stay in place, S&P 500 earnings expectations and multiples are too high and will need to rerate lower because companies cannot pass on all tariff costs and margins will shrink. He wants to see that reset/data before turning ridiculously bullish.
SPY MED
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 35:17
IBIT/SPY breakout signals Bitcoin upside.
He watches the IBIT/SPY ratio as a breakout indicator for crypto capital flows. It is around 0.09; if it approaches or breaks the prior cycle high near 0.10, he thinks it signals Bitcoin is decorrelating to the upside and could trigger broader capital inflows and mania-like moves in crypto.
IBIT/SPY ratio MED
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 43:17
Bullish gold and miners for 6-12 months.
In a multipolar world, gold is the first reserve-currency alternative, and the People's Bank of China has been adding gold for five consecutive months while selling US Treasuries. He is very bullish gold and gold miners for the next 6-12 months, sees ~80% odds gold is up versus ~60% for Bitcoin, and suggests options for juice and some physical exposure.
GDX GLD HIGH
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 44:09
Own Bitcoin and gold for risk-adjusted returns.
He thinks the expected value of percentage returns is higher for a dollar in Bitcoin than gold, but Bitcoin will be much more volatile. He recommends adding gold to the portfolio for diversification and a higher Sharpe ratio so investors can tolerate bigger Bitcoin drawdowns and rebalance.
BTC MED
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This 1000x Podcast video, published April 16, 2025, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing BTC, SOL, HYPE, PLUME, AO, SKY, GRASS, CRV, PENDLE, ETH, SPY, IBIT/SPY ratio, GDX, GLD. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg  · Tickers: BTC, SOL, HYPE, PLUME, AO, SKY, GRASS, CRV, PENDLE, ETH, SPY, IBIT/SPY ratio, GDX, GLD