US & Iran Spar Over Talks & Trump-Xi To Hold Summit in May | Daybreak Europe 3/26/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Conflicting U.S./Iran messaging on negotiations is keeping oil in a range (~$104/bbl Brent) and investors cautious, despite ongoing military escalation and troop deployments.
- Asian equities (MXAP) snapped a two-day winning streak, declining 1.3%, with Korean stocks (KOSPI) down >3% due to energy price concerns and emergency electricity curbs.
- Higher oil prices are stoking inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations for tighter policy in some regions (e.g., 67% chance priced for a BOJ hike in April).
- Analyst Lale Akoner (eToro) warns markets are underestimating stagflation risk, especially in Europe/UK, and expects the Fed will not cut rates this year due to persistent inflation.
- Akoner sees a demand-driven recession in the U.S. as more likely than in Europe, but not a major one, citing U.S. consumer strength at the war's onset.
- Current client activity (eToro) shows caution, diversification into energy equities/commodities, and increased cash positions amid headline volatility.
- Akoner highlights specific opportunities: Brazilian/Latin American equities tied to commodities, and a preference for value sectors (Financials, Industrials, Materials) in Europe.
- Lloyd Blankfein warns of an "unresolved crisis" in private markets, comparing accumulated unsold private assets to "tinder" waiting for a spark, implying potential overvaluation.
- The physical oil market is experiencing unprecedented reshuffling and bottlenecks, with Strait of Hormuz flows drastically reduced (~1.6M bpd vs. typical 16M bpd), creating a disconnect with paper markets.
- Iran is drafting a law to impose a transit toll on the Strait of Hormuz, seen as a leverage move and a non-starter for regional states, but a potential revenue source if enforced.
- G7 divisions exist over the Iran war, with a general reluctance for deep engagement, but efforts are focused on coordinating energy measures and keeping the U.S. engaged on Ukraine.
Trade Ideas
Blankfein states the accumulation of unsold private assets is like "tinder on the floor of the forest," and "a spark will come." He questions why assets weren't sold in good markets, implying they are "marked higher than what you could get." The inability to sell in favorable conditions suggests overvaluation. The "tinder" analogy signals a high risk of a downward price reckoning when a forcing function occurs. This is a clear warning of overvaluation and latent risk in the private credit/equity asset class, advocating caution. A "soft landing" where economic conditions allow for orderly asset sales without a major repricing event.
Akoner states eToro clients are "increasing their exposures to energy related, equities, commodity indices." The ongoing war has constrained oil supply (notably via the Strait of Hormuz), supporting higher prices and profitability for energy companies. This is a direct allocation recommendation in response to the current geopolitical and supply environment, indicating a bullish view on the sector. A rapid de-escalation of the Iran conflict or a global demand shock that collapses the oil price.
Akoner says gold "has a place in portfolios from a structural point of view" and "once we see inflationary pressures come down and the rate cut cycle being priced again, we would expect gold to act as a diversifier." Gold is not currently acting as a safe haven but is seen as a structural holding. Its role as a diversifier is expected to strengthen when the monetary policy cycle turns toward easing. The view is neutral-to-watchful currently, with a clear conditional catalyst (rate cut expectations) for it to become a more active diversifier. Persistent inflation keeps central banks hawkish indefinitely, delaying the rate cut cycle and gold's diversification appeal.
Akoner states "we are seeing, interest in Brazilian equities" because they are "tied to the commodity cycle" and benefit from "easy monetary policy." The commodity cycle is supported by geopolitical supply disruptions, and local easy policy provides a favorable backdrop. The Brazilian real's strength against the USD is also noted. This is a favorable view on Brazilian equities as a play on commodities and local macro conditions, with observed investor interest. A sharp downturn in global commodity demand or a shift in Brazil's monetary policy.
Akoner states "one thing concerning is, yen. If you hedge, for yen, I think again, there is a massive sort of like push for reform." She also expects the BOJ to hike due to energy-driven inflation. Japan is a major energy importer facing inflationary pressure, which may force the BOJ to tighten policy. The statement implies hedging is a concern, suggesting vulnerability. The combined context of energy dependency, potential policy shift, and explicit hedging concern leads to a negative inference on the currency's outlook. The BOJ delays hiking or intervenes aggressively to support the yen, or global energy prices fall sharply.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 26, 2026, features Lloyd Blankfein, Lale Akoner discussing BIZD, XLE, GOLD, EWZ, JPY. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Lloyd Blankfein, Lale Akoner · Tickers: BIZD, XLE, GOLD, EWZ, JPY