Is Crypto Still The Best Trade?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 07, 2025 at 19:17  |  1:00:17  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Summary

Jonah Van Bourg and Avi Felman discuss whether crypto remains the best trade as Bitcoin hovers near all-time highs. They debate the near-term BTC setup, dollar debasement, tariff-driven equity risk, and the shift away from useless altcoins toward Bitcoin. The conversation also covers exchange competition among Hyperliquid, Robinhood, and Binance, plus options strategies for low Bitcoin volatility.

  • Bitcoin is near highs; Jonah expects a rally while Avi expects a pullback before continuation.
  • The dollar is discussed as the best short leg due to fiscal debasement.
  • Avi favors long BTC versus short altcoins and expects BTC dominance to rise.
  • Avi is nervous about equities into the August 1 tariff deadline and has bought puts.
  • Longer term, Avi calls the S&P 500 the new dollar and Bitcoin the new S&P.
  • Jonah is bullish Hyperliquid while Avi is bullish Robinhood as founder-led exchanges grow.
  • Binance and BNB are viewed skeptically without CZ and amid rising exchange competition.
  • Low Bitcoin implied volatility leads to a covered-call and sell-optionality discussion.
Ideas
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 1:57
BTC never ranges at highs; expects rally.
Bitcoin never stabilizes at all-time highs; it either breaks much higher or sells off sharply. Jonah does not expect a breakdown and is positioned for a rally, explicitly favoring long BTCUSD.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 2:37
Fiscal deficits debase dollar; short USD.
After the passage of the big beautiful bill, fiscal deficits and debasement make the dollar a one-way train to zero. The dollar is the best short leg to pair with a long Bitcoin trade.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 3:32
Trim BTC; high-range breakdown likely.
Bitcoin is ranging at highs even as treasury companies buy aggressively, leverage has rebuilt, and momentum has faded. Historical ranges at highs often break down to wash out leverage before continuing, so Avi expects a pullback toward 95K-96K and advises not buying much and trimming existing BTC exposure.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 6:26
Long BTC, short Cardano as alts underperform.
In a Bitcoin pullback, altcoins should underperform sharply. The clean expression is long BTC versus short weaker alts like Cardano because BTC sells off much less than altcoins in this environment.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 7:36
Hedge equities into August tariff deadline.
Avi is nervous about equities into the August 1 Liberation Day tariff deadline. Markets have rallied while not believing large tariffs will hit, but as the deadline approaches, it becomes rational to hold a bearish view for a shorter period, and he has bought puts to protect his portfolio and capture a potential event-driven break.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 14:52
Diversify into equities; want Rocket Lab.
Jonah has been diversifying out of crypto into specific equities he wants to own. He explicitly wants to own Rocket Lab (RKLB) as part of this move, though he gives limited company-specific detail.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 24:50
Altcoins structurally challenged; BTC dominance rises.
Most crypto tokens have no reason to exist unless they create equity-like value or buy back tokens with revenue. As holders realize this, capital should rotate from useless altcoins like Celestia, Polkadot, and Cardano into Bitcoin, pushing BTC dominance higher.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 24:50
Altcoins structurally challenged; BTC dominance rises.
Most crypto tokens have no reason to exist unless they create equity-like value or buy back tokens with revenue. As holders realize this, capital should rotate from useless altcoins like Celestia, Polkadot, and Cardano into Bitcoin, pushing BTC dominance higher.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 31:24
Avoid BNB; Binance lost founder edge.
Binance losing CZ means losing founder vision and becoming more of a value extractor. The exchange game is very competitive, and founder-led Hyperliquid and Robinhood are likely to eat Binance's lunch, making BNB unattractive.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 32:35
Hyperliquid can beat Robinhood on developers.
Jonah has a non-consensus bullish view on Hyperliquid. Although not maximally decentralized, it is more decentralized and lower-fee than Robinhood, open source, and easier for developers to build financial applications on, so it may do just fine or even beat Robinhood.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 39:45
Robinhood best consumer one-stop finance app.
Avi is super bullish on Robinhood because consumers want one easy place to do everything and Robinhood is furthest along in aggregating TradFi and crypto. It is very easy to use, offers strong promos, and can onboard TradFi users into crypto with bells and whistles.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 55:31
Sell Bitcoin calls against spot.
Bitcoin implied volatility around 35-37% is low versus history but still high versus realized daily vol. If BTC grinds higher slowly rather than ripping, selling calls against spot or selling optionality can collect theta and premium, and Jonah plans to look at IBIT calls.
Up Next

This 1000x Podcast video, published July 07, 2025, features Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman discussing BTC, USD, ADA, SPY, RKLB, Bitcoin dominance, ALTCOINS, BNB, HYPE, HOOD, IBIT calls. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman  · Tickers: BTC, USD, ADA, SPY, RKLB, Bitcoin dominance, ALTCOINS, BNB, HYPE, HOOD, IBIT calls