Ideas
Fiscal bill may push yields higher.
Ron expects no substantial drop in US mortgage rates in the coming months. The Big Beautiful Bill is rattling bond and Treasury traders, and if it passes, Treasury yields may rise further, pushing mortgage rates back over 7%. Fed cuts may come only late in the year and would not prevent another sluggish two quarters. This supports higher Treasury yields and higher-for-longer mortgage rates.
Affordability caps US housing demand.
US housing remains sluggish because affordability is stretched: high home prices, rates still more than double the 2021 lows, rising insurance, property taxes, HOA fees, food inflation, and wages not keeping up. Purchase applications barely respond to lower rates. Ron says a meaningful pickup in new home purchases will not happen until mortgage rates start with a five, so the market is unattractive.
South Florida condos under severe stress.
South Florida is experiencing one of its most difficult housing periods since the financial crisis, driven by new condo legislation, higher condo fees, and related issues. Florida is already in correction, making it a high-risk condo market.
Toronto/Vancouver condos face bloodbath.
There will be continued chaos in the high-rise condo markets of Toronto and Vancouver. Pre-sale prices doubled in 2020-2021 and are no longer economically viable; 45,000-50,000 GTA contracts risk failing to complete; foreign buying and new sales have collapsed; values are falling and more supply is coming. Ron expects a bloodbath of losses and substantial price reductions, especially in Toronto, and says buyers should wait.
Canadian construction faces job crash.
Ron expects considerable unemployment in construction trades in BC and Ontario, with an almost catastrophic crash in construction jobs by the end of this year and into the first half of next year. Nothing is being built, housing starts are at multi-decade lows, and the building disaster could rival 1990, with commercial construction also weak.
Canadian real estate faces difficult year.
Ron expects a very difficult year for Canadian real estate broadly. Condo chaos in Toronto and Vancouver, construction job losses, no new low-rise building, and affordability stress will keep the market weak.
Alberta construction relatively strong vs Toronto.
Calgary and Edmonton are still building a lot of homes because development charges are about $28,000 versus roughly $260,000 for a single-family home in Toronto. Ron sees this 10x cost gap as a reason Alberta new construction remains relatively healthy while Toronto/GTA construction and single-family markets face trouble.
Alberta construction relatively strong vs Toronto.
Calgary and Edmonton are still building a lot of homes because development charges are about $28,000 versus roughly $260,000 for a single-family home in Toronto. Ron sees this 10x cost gap as a reason Alberta new construction remains relatively healthy while Toronto/GTA construction and single-family markets face trouble.
Low-rise scarcity may drive later rally.
Very little new low-rise construction is occurring in Ontario and BC because subdivision permissions, development charges, and geography/Green Belt constraints make it too expensive. Ron thinks that scarcity could eventually drive a rally in single-family and townhouse prices in 2028-29, though affordability is still so stretched that a meaningful pickup is unlikely before 2027 and buyers should wait until 2026 to start looking.
Ontario/BC landlord market deteriorates.
Rental rates are falling across Ontario and British Columbia and will likely continue for at least three more quarters. A record wave of purpose-built rentals and about 40,000 new condo units coming online will pressure rents further, making it one of the worst times to be a landlord in those provinces. Renters, by contrast, have negotiating power and free-rent incentives.
This The David Lin Report video, published July 05, 2025,
features Ron Butler
discussing US Treasury yields, ITB, South Florida condominium market, Toronto condominium market, Vancouver condominium market, Canadian construction sector, Canadian real estate market, Alberta housing market, Toronto single-family housing, Canadian low-rise housing, Ontario rental properties, British Columbia rental properties.
10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Ron Butler
· Tickers:
US Treasury yields,
ITB,
South Florida condominium market,
Toronto condominium market,
Vancouver condominium market,
Canadian construction sector,
Canadian real estate market,
Alberta housing market,
Toronto single-family housing,
Canadian low-rise housing,
Ontario rental properties,
British Columbia rental properties
