Name: Market ‘Uncertainty’ Highest Since 2020, Is Major Volatility Next? | Bob Ryan
Uploaded: 2025-01-14T15:01:05+00:00
Duration: 2074 s

Speakers

Bob Ryan — Founder, Ryan Commodity Insights

Summary

Bob Ryan of Ryan Commodity Insights discusses high global policy uncertainty, tame options volatility, and safe-haven demand for gold and the US dollar. He reviews oil market dynamics, including OPEC+ supply withholding, backwardation, a $70-80 Brent range for 2025, and the view that Middle East peace would be bullish rather than bearish for oil. He also covers tariffs, China, offshore drilling, and why Russian gas cuts support LNG demand.

Global policy uncertainty is elevated while implied volatility remains tame.
Safe-haven flows have kept gold and the US dollar well bid.
OPEC+ supply withholding supports a backwardated oil curve and limits downside.
Brent is expected to trade roughly $70-80 in 2025, averaging $75-77.
Red Sea attacks are seen as marginal; Strait of Hormuz escalation is the key oil risk.
Peace in Ukraine or the Middle East could be bullish for oil via trade normalization.
Russian gas transit halt supports high LNG demand.
Tariffs, China demand, offshore drilling, and naval competition are discussed without clear trade conclusions.

Ideas

Bob Ryan Founder, Ryan Commodity Insights 2:46

Safe-haven demand lifts gold and dollar

Global economic policy uncertainty is high and markets are on edge, prompting a flight to safe havens. Gold has remained very well bid and is within 5% of its all-time high near $2,800 an ounce, while the US dollar is also well bid despite moving in the same direction as gold, a post-pandemic regime shift. This reflects strong safe-haven demand and aversion to positioning risk.

Bob Ryan Founder, Ryan Commodity Insights 9:18

OPEC+ withholding keeps oil curve backwardated

OPEC+ is withholding roughly 5.85 million barrels per day and delaying the return of barrels until April, spreading the return over two years to end-2026. As refiners draw crude inventories to meet heating oil and gas oil demand, inventories should fall faster and the crude curve should become more backwardated, with front-month trading above deferred contracts; Bob expects this tightening to continue.

Bob Ryan Founder, Ryan Commodity Insights 14:31

Brent expected $70-80 range in 2025

Bob expects Brent to trade in a $70-80 range in 2025, averaging around $75-77. He sees a slight downward bias initially, but downside is limited because OPEC+ has withheld supply and inventories are falling; a demand or supply shock could trigger sharp price spikes, with below-$65 Brent unlikely.

Bob Ryan Founder, Ryan Commodity Insights 23:21

Peace would be bullish for oil

Contrary to the consensus that Middle East or Ukraine peace would be bearish for oil, Bob argues peace would be somewhat bullish because it would allow a resumption of trade and commerce, shipping through the Red Sea, and normal economic activity, increasing oil demand; much of the geopolitical risk premium has already left the market.

Bob Ryan Founder, Ryan Commodity Insights 33:21

Russian gas halt lifts LNG demand

Russian gas is no longer flowing across Ukraine into Eastern Europe, making demand for LNG high. Biden-era throttling of LNG development adds supply constraints, and the recent spike in UK gas illustrates the sensitivity.

Market ‘Uncertainty’ Highest Since 2020, Is Major Volatility Next? | Bob Ryan

Summary

Ideas

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