Bob Ryan

Brent crude oil prices are likely to rise sharply, potentially reaching $150 per barrel by the second half of the year, due to the sustained US-Iran standoff, severe backwardation in futures markets, panic buying by refiners, and the inability to replace lost supply from the Strait of Hormuz. The base case is $100/bbl on average for the rest of 2026, but the risk is skewed to the upside.

US crude oil exports are set to increase by up to 500,000 barrels per day due to a Platts rule change effective May 1 that expands the number of approved terminals for loading WTI Midland into the Brent pool. This benefits US oil producers and the broader US energy sector, offsetting some of the global supply loss.

Technology stocks may act as a safe haven during the oil shock because large tech firms have inelastic capital expenditure commitments (e.g., AI spending) that will continue regardless of oil price increases. This makes the tech sector relatively resilient compared to other sectors.