Huge Jobs Surge Stuns Markets: Is Economy On Fire? | Adrian Day

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 13, 2025 at 01:13  |  35:10  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
Adrian Day — President, Adrian Day Asset Management
David Lin — Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News

Summary

Adrian Day joins David Lin to discuss the stronger-than-expected December jobs report, Fed policy, inflation, commodities, and gold. Day is skeptical that the jobs data will remain as strong after revisions and sees inflation risks tilted higher. He remains bullish on gold and large-cap gold miners, favors intermediate producers later but avoids juniors for now, and expects commodity prices to rise under tariff threats. He also expects a defensive rotation into value and income stocks.

  • December jobs report beat expectations, reducing odds of a January Fed cut.
  • Adrian Day warns labor data may be revised lower and recession risk is not fully cleared.
  • Inflation expectations and Fed inflation-risk concerns are rising.
  • Tariff threats are putting upward pressure on commodities like oil, copper, natural gas, and lumber.
  • Gold is rising despite fewer expected rate cuts, supported by central-bank and Chinese buying.
  • Day favors large-cap gold miners and royalty companies, with intermediates later and juniors avoided.
  • He expects capital to rotate toward defensive, value, and income-oriented assets.
Ideas
Adrian Day President, Adrian Day Asset Management 17:31
Tariffs pressure commodity prices higher
He is bullish on commodities broadly because tariff threats are prompting importers with near-term needs to buy now, adding upward pressure; tariffs generally raise U.S. commodity prices since the U.S. imports much. He notes recent strength in natural gas, oil, copper, and lumber, though higher prices could eventually dent demand.
Adrian Day President, Adrian Day Asset Management 19:58
Gold bull market just beginning
Adrian is bullish on gold because it rose despite stronger jobs and reduced odds of near-term Fed cuts, signaling strong buying power. Central-bank and Chinese consumer buying remain the main drivers and their reasons have not gone away; Trump's tariff threats against de-dollarization reinforce central-bank gold demand, China is back in the market, and excess global liquidity supports gold. Geopolitical events like a Ukraine peace deal are unlikely to end the gold bull market, and the last two years of central-bank buying were only a prelude to a broader bull cycle.
Adrian Day President, Adrian Day Asset Management 25:16
Money rotates to defensive assets
Absent either a much smoother-than-expected Trump transition or a major blowup, he expects capital to rotate into more defensive assets, including value-oriented and income-oriented stocks, as investors seek defense.
Adrian Day President, Adrian Day Asset Management 30:51
Favor large-cap gold miners first
In the early stage of a new gold bull market, capital flows first to large miners and large royalty companies, which are first and safest to move. He is emphasizing large caps and says investors must be selective because Barrick has lagged on Mali-related issues while Agnico Eagle has done well; the XAU has risen about 25% but has not yet delivered the leverage typically expected in a gold bull market.
Adrian Day President, Adrian Day Asset Management 33:13
Buy intermediate gold producers in 2025
He expects to start increasing exposure to intermediate gold producers later in 2025 as the gold bull cycle progresses, but not to juniors yet.
Adrian Day President, Adrian Day Asset Management 33:13
Avoid junior gold miners for now
Junior and small-cap gold explorers are not ready to lead; their day comes later in the bull cycle, likely at least another year away, so he is avoiding them for now.
Up Next

This The David Lin Report video, published January 13, 2025, features Adrian Day discussing DBC, UNG, WTI, COPPER, WOOD, GLD, Defensive assets, SCHD, Value stocks, GDX, Gold royalty companies, Intermediate gold producers, GDXJ. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Adrian Day  · Tickers: DBC, UNG, WTI, COPPER, WOOD, GLD, Defensive assets, SCHD, Value stocks, GDX, Gold royalty companies, Intermediate gold producers, GDXJ