One More Push Higher Before the Crash?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 18, 2025 at 22:40  |  53:21  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Summary

The hosts discuss a slow, sideways crypto market and the ETH rally driven by treasury company/DAT flows. They debate whether the next move is another push higher before a broader unwind, how to trade ETH beta names like LINK and Aerodrome, and how leverage and margin affect positioning. They also analyze DAT premiums and discounts as a leading indicator and outline a future GBTC-style trade to buy treasury companies at deep discounts.

  • Crypto markets have been sideways for about 37 days while ETH has trended higher.
  • ETH's rally is attributed largely to DAT/treasury-company flows and front-running.
  • Hosts discuss tactical long trades in LINK, Aerodrome, ETH, and altcoins with aggressive profit-taking.
  • Jonah prefers consolidating crypto exposure into Bitcoin if reducing risk.
  • ETH DAT premium/discount trends are weakening and could pressure ETH flows.
  • The hosts expect a possible final leg higher before an unwind.
  • They outline waiting to buy DATs at deep discounts as a future GBTC-like trade.
  • They debate margin/leverage execution and admit mistakes with borrowing USDC vs ETH.
Ideas
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 9:36
Trade LINK as ETH beta momentum.
LINK's chart looks strong and fits the institutional/ETH beta rally because Wall Street knows it and it provides a real oracle function in crypto. However, on-chain revenue is tiny and most Oracle revenue is allegedly off-chain and impossible to track, with no token buybacks, so it is not a long-term investable thesis. Still, in a momentum market, he would buy LINK for a trade and hold for a week or month or two if crypto starts rallying again.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 11:55
Altcoin longs need aggressive profit-taking.
This is a sideways 'old season' environment that may last a few more weeks before an alt-market implosion. Altcoin pops are inefficient rotation-driven moves; if buying any altcoins, take profits aggressively, e.g., one third at +15%, one third at +30%, one third at +50%. Buying on down days is better than chasing +15-20% days.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 13:43
Buy ETH dip; sell next leg.
ETH retraced about 10% into reasonable support while treasury companies are still buying. He is not worried about the pullback and expects another leg up in crypto/ETH. He would be a net seller into that next leg, but he is buying this dip and looking for the next rally before the broader unwind.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 15:59
Buy Aerodrome dip for mean reversion.
In a white-hot crypto bull market, buying sell-offs is scary, but oscillation around an upward trend is tradable. Aerodrome is a token he is long and still under-exposed to; down days like today are good to buy for reversion to an upward-sloping mean, not a falling knife. He also used margin to add Aerodrome.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 16:49
Consolidate crypto into Bitcoin; still upside.
If reducing crypto exposure into the next turbo pump, he would not consolidate into dollars; he would close leverage and consolidate all coins back into Bitcoin because he still thinks Bitcoin has room to run.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 32:57
ETH/BTC heading below 0.25.
ETH's rally is not fundamentally driven; it is driven by DAT/treasury-company flows and front-running of those flows. If the DAT premium/discount structure breaks and treasury buying stops, the front-runners stop too, leaving no marginal buyer. Without this structure, ETH/BTC would be below 0.25 and is heading there anyway.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 37:37
Avoid ETH DATs; discounts may deepen.
Even if ETH itself cannot crash immediately when treasury companies stop buying, the ETH DAT equities can fall very quickly. Their premium to NAV is already leaking lower, and holders are Citadel/Millennium-type equity traders and retail who will exit to avoid the bus; discounts could widen as far as GBTC did, roughly 50-60% below spot.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 38:52
Buy DATs at deep discounts.
The right DAT trade is not to short them or short them versus ETH. Wait until they cascade to distress levels and discounts widen, then buy them as a better way to hold ETH or Bitcoin, rerunning the GBTC discount playbook. Some may become insolvent or illiquid, so pick well-structured names. He would scale in around 30-40% discounts; if Nakamoto were down 20% or Metaplanet down 20-30%, he would likely buy those because they are structured okay. MSTR is most battle-tested and if it ever trades at a discount it is a screaming buy.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 47:28
Bitcoin rallies, washes out, then rises.
Over the next three to four weeks, expect a nice rally across crypto. Bitcoin likely fails to hold above 120k, then washes out to 98-102k, which would feel like death; after sideways action, it should go up again. He calls this a 'crazy take' but his base path.
Up Next

This 1000x Podcast video, published August 18, 2025, features Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman discussing LINK, ALTCOINS, ETH, AERODROME, BTC, ETH/BTC, ETH DATs, SBET, BMNR, BTCS, ETH/Bitcoin treasury companies (DATs), NAKA, Metaplanet, MSTR. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman  · Tickers: LINK, ALTCOINS, ETH, AERODROME, BTC, ETH/BTC, ETH DATs, SBET, BMNR, BTCS, ETH/Bitcoin treasury companies (DATs), NAKA, Metaplanet, MSTR