Ideas
Near-term S&P risk from leverage, seasonality.
Despite the deregulation tailwind, record margin debt, crowded leveraged positioning, and unfavorable seasonality from now into late September make the market vulnerable to an air pocket, so being overly bullish on the S&P 500 and short-term US equities is risky.
Dollar likely rangebound; crowded shorts vulnerable.
The dollar is likely rangebound rather than continuing its 2025 decline; bearish dollar positioning is extremely crowded, so he prefers betting against the crowd and sees rebound risk, especially if a true risk-off move develops.
Volatility spike likely; nobody prepared.
Deregulation frees markets from red tape and reduces volatility suppression, which should increase volatility and risk-on/risk-off dynamics; that is good for active traders and supports a long-volatility posture even absent the near-term leverage risk.
AI/large-cap tech crowding is dangerous.
Margin debt is at record highs and investors are aggressively crowded into the same large-cap tech and AI names, creating a concentration bubble; crowded positioning and leverage could end badly, making the group dangerous to own.
Deregulation broadens small/midcap momentum.
Deregulation and looser bank lending standards should improve capital access for small and mid-cap companies that have been starved of capital, broadening momentum beyond large-cap AI and potentially turning laggards into winners.
FMKT is underappreciated deregulation play.
The Free Markets ETF (FMKT) is an active, long-only deregulation vehicle designed to own companies benefiting most from executive-order deregulation; Michael says the market is underappreciating these beneficiaries and views FMKT as a longer-term play.
Regional banks win from lending deregulation.
The administration and Bessent are pushing to loosen capital and lending requirements for regional and community banks, which could release a new wave of liquidity and make regional banks a major winner; he has been adding to the space.
Healthcare deregulation could drive outperformance.
Healthcare is likely the next major deregulation focus; potential federal-versus-state line changes and Trump announcements could drive sector outperformance, with HIMS highlighted as a telehealth beneficiary of that deregulation.
Healthcare deregulation could drive outperformance.
Healthcare is likely the next major deregulation focus; potential federal-versus-state line changes and Trump announcements could drive sector outperformance, with HIMS highlighted as a telehealth beneficiary of that deregulation.
Utilities benefit from deregulation, AI power.
Utilities are a deregulation beneficiary and an adjacent way to play AI electricity demand, unlike tech; Vistra and similar companies are interesting on that electricity-demand angle.
Long Treasuries express short-term risk-off.
In his other funds he is short-term risk-off and expresses that through long-duration Treasuries, even though Treasuries are not currently acting like a reliable risk-off safe haven.
Own gold, Bitcoin via IBIT/GLDM.
FMKT owns IBIT and GLDM, giving long-term exposure to Bitcoin and gold as free-market alternatives and diversifiers; he is not bearish long term and would not wait too aggressively, though short-term pullbacks are possible due to leverage.
Gold outperforms Bitcoin in risk-off.
Over the next 12 months gold likely outperforms Bitcoin because another drawdown and risk-off period is likely and Bitcoin has not proven itself as a risk-off asset; he would weight gold higher as a diversifier.
Gold outperforms Bitcoin in risk-off.
Over the next 12 months gold likely outperforms Bitcoin because another drawdown and risk-off period is likely and Bitcoin has not proven itself as a risk-off asset; he would weight gold higher as a diversifier.
Lumber weakness warns on home construction.
Lumber has collapsed and is failing to show strength despite the S&P wealth effect, which is a warning sign for home construction and the cyclical economy and suggests a defensive market tone.
This The David Lin Report video, published August 18, 2025,
features Michael Gayed
discussing SPY, DXY, VOLATILITY, Large-cap tech, AI-SECTOR, MDY, IWM, FMKT, KRE, XLV, HIMS, UTILITIES, VST, TLT, IBIT, GLDM, GLD, BTC, WOOD.
15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Michael Gayed
· Tickers:
SPY,
DXY,
VOLATILITY,
Large-cap tech,
AI-SECTOR,
MDY,
IWM,
FMKT,
KRE,
XLV,
HIMS,
UTILITIES,
VST,
TLT,
IBIT,
GLDM,
GLD,
BTC,
WOOD
