Ideas
Vietnam tariff exposure pressures apparel retailers
Companies that moved production out of China to Vietnam, including Nike, Lululemon and Deckers Outdoor, are now hit by unexpectedly high Vietnam tariffs. Gareth says this is creating a major problem for these stocks, which were dropping massively on the day.
Russell 2000 bounce likely at trendline
The Russell 2000 is already in a true bear market, down over 20% from its high, but it is near an upward trend line connecting the March 2020 COVID low and the 2023 banking-crisis low. Gareth expects a short-term bounce from this bouncable level, though it could first dip a little lower to tag the line.
Amazon oversold bounce off long-term trendline
Amazon fell about 27% from its February high into a long-term trend line from January 2023. Gareth bought the stock, noting it is a high-quality name and already bouncing off its low, and he expects at least one to two weeks of upside, with a possible quick 10% gain on a three-to-five-day hold.
Google technical bounce to 162-163
Google dropped about 27% from its February high into a major gap fill and double bottom. Gareth sees a 70%-75% probability of a technical bounce to 162-163, which could produce a 10%-12% gain in about a week.
Longer-term market top, more downside
Gareth does not think the worst is behind the market. The S&P 500 on a log scale has tagged a trend line connecting the 1929 pre-Depression high and the dot-com high, while the Nasdaq Composite has tagged a parallel channel line from the COVID low, bull-market high and 2022 bear low; these historically marked major tops. He also holds longer-duration shorts and expects short-term rip-your-face-off rallies to turn into more downside.
AI stock valuations mark cycle top
AI and supercomputer stocks rose hundreds of percent into the top, similar to dot-com-era excesses. Gareth sees those wacky valuations as a sign that the AI stock group marked a major top, especially as the economy slows.
10-year Treasury yield target 3.45-3.47%
Bonds are one of the safe havens as yields fall. The 10-year Treasury yield broke the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern, and Gareth's measured target is 3.45%-3.47%, implying further yield downside and Treasury price upside. He also expects the Fed not to hike and to cut later this year, though it may not be enough.
10-year Treasury yield target 3.45-3.47%
Bonds are one of the safe havens as yields fall. The 10-year Treasury yield broke the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern, and Gareth's measured target is 3.45%-3.47%, implying further yield downside and Treasury price upside. He also expects the Fed not to hike and to cut later this year, though it may not be enough.
Pfizer defensive value with 7% yield
Pfizer is a beaten-down defensive name sitting at a double bottom, trading around 8x forward earnings with a roughly 7% dividend yield. Even in a recession people still need drugs, and Gareth expects these out-of-favor defensive names to outperform; he would rather collect the yield while waiting.
Favor defensive dividend-paying stocks now
With fear across markets and few places to hide, Gareth favors defensive names that pay dividends. He specifically cites Kraft Heinz and Procter & Gamble and says if a stock is not paying a dividend, he does not want it right now.
Gold short-term overbought, pullback risk
Gold is overbought in the short term and could pull back if the equity selloff deepens. In a sharp drawdown, investors may sell gold to raise cash, meet margin calls, or lock in profits, so Gareth is not a fan of gold short-term even as he holds it long-term.
Bitcoin may test 70-74k support
Bitcoin double-topped similarly to 2021 and has major technical support at the 70,000-74,000 area, the previous highs. Gareth expects this support to be tested in the coming weeks; if the stock market drops another 20% or a bear flag forms, Bitcoin could go much lower.
This The David Lin Report video, published April 03, 2025,
features Gareth Soloway
discussing NKE, LULU, DECK, IWM, AMZN, GOOG, NASDAQ Composite, SPY, AIQ, TLT, 10-Year Treasury Yield, PFE, SPHD, KHC, PG, GLD, BTC.
12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Gareth Soloway
· Tickers:
NKE,
LULU,
DECK,
IWM,
AMZN,
GOOG,
NASDAQ Composite,
SPY,
AIQ,
TLT,
10-Year Treasury Yield,
PFE,
SPHD,
KHC,
PG,
GLD,
BTC
