What Does 'We Have Work to Do' Mean? | Park Jun-woo, Hana Securities Research Center Research Fellow
We have work to do." What does it mean? | Park Jun-woo, Hana Securities Research Center Research Fellow [Double Up]
Спикеры
Park Jun-woo
— Research Fellow, Hana Securities Research Center
Park Jun-woo interprets Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole 'we have work to do' as a deliberate choice to tighten short rates while anchoring long-end yields. He expects U.S. short rates can still rise and U.S. equities may face a healthy 10% correction, followed by recovery if hikes stop. For Korea, he expects two more BOK hikes by next year's first half but sees strong GDP and semiconductor-led growth as reasons not to fear Korean equities.
- Jackson Hole message is parsed as hawkish enough to anchor long-term Treasury yields.
- U.S. short-term rates are expected to overshoot and rise further initially.
- U.S. equity correction is viewed as healthy and likely capped around 10%.
- The Bank of Korea's back-to-back hikes are called preemptive, with two more hikes expected by the first half of next year.
- Korea's GDP forecast is sharply upgraded and the economy is viewed as still expanding.
- Semiconductor exports and equipment investment are key drivers of Korean growth.
- Over-tightening and an oil rebound are flagged as the main risks.
Идеи
Long-end yields stay anchored amid tightening
Park sees the Fed's hawkish message as a deliberate effort to anchor the long end: by accepting some short-end tightening, long-term Treasury yields should stay relatively contained, preventing the worst-case equity scenario even though overall rate rises are hard to stop.
Expect up to 10% equity correction
Park views the rate-driven equity pullback as healthy and likely capped around a 10% correction because U.S. economic and earnings fundamentals are strong enough to withstand roughly two rate hikes. If tightening stops after one or two hikes, the correction can give way to another rally, though the impact of tightening is only beginning.
US short rates likely to rise further
Park argues the Fed is deliberately letting short-term yields rise to keep long-term yields from uncontrolled spikes. Market pricing already reflects two hikes and tends to overshoot, so U.S. short rates have probably not peaked and can rise further in the early phase even if the Fed ultimately delivers only two hikes.
Korean base rate has two more hikes
Park expects the Bank of Korea to raise its base rate two more times by the first half of next year because Korean fundamentals are strong and nominal GDP growth around 5% supports higher rates. He interprets the BOK's back-to-back hikes as preemptive rather than recessionary.
Korean economy strong; don't fear hikes
Park is constructive on Korean risk assets because the Bank of Korea sharply raised GDP forecasts and is showing unusual confidence. Korea remains in an economic expansion, so rate hikes should not be read as a reason to fear the equity market.
Semiconductors drive Korea's GDP upgrade
Park says a large part of Korea's upgraded growth outlook is semiconductor-driven. Strong semiconductor exports are already spreading into domestic demand through sharply upgraded facility investment and fab construction, supporting continued momentum into next year.
Далее
This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published August 31, 2026, features Park Jun-woo discussing US10Y, SPY, US 2-Year Treasury Yield, South Korean short-term interest rates, EWY, Korean semiconductor sector. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Park Jun-woo · Tickers: US10Y, SPY, US 2-Year Treasury Yield, South Korean short-term interest rates, EWY, Korean semiconductor sector