Has the Fed turned hawkish? How much will KOSPI shake with the possibility of a September interest rate hike? | Park Byung-chang, MP Partners CEO [Market Inside]

Summary

Park Byung-chang interprets the post-Jackson Hole Fed comments as hawkish, with the market beginning to price September rate-hike risk. He expects KOSPI to face a difficult, lower-biased September below 7,000 due to event uncertainty, while recommending higher cash buffers. He remains medium-term constructive on memory and SK Hynix but warns that recently hot Korean sectors could lose momentum if rates rise.

• US yields, the dollar and rate-hike risk rose after the Fed speech while growth and semiconductor stocks fell.
• Cash-rich mega-cap tech such as Amazon, Alphabet and Apple outperformed in the hawkish repricing.
• KOSPI retraced about half of its July crash and is seen biased lower below 7,000 in September.
• Key September risks include futures/options expiration, the FOMC meeting, and the Chuseok holiday period.
• Park suggests increasing cash buffers by roughly 10% for risk management.
• Memory prices and AI token usage support a medium-term constructive view on Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron.
• SK Hynix is seen as abnormally weak versus Micron due to Korean supply overhang that should eventually normalize.
• Recently outperforming Korean sectors such as secondary batteries, nuclear, power infrastructure and cosmetics are vulnerable if rate-hike pricing strengthens.