Name: Semiconductors are fine even if interest rates rise? Focus on AI investment and big tech fundamentals | Kim Jang-yeol, Head of Research Center, Unistory Asset Management [Global Interview]
Uploaded: 2026-08-30T22:54:33+00:00
Duration: 2120 s

Speakers

Kim Jang-yeol — Reporter, The Bell

Summary

Kim Jang-yeol reviews post-Jackson Hole rate uncertainty and argues forward guidance is weaker while data such as JOLTS, CPI and payrolls dominate. He examines whether higher rates must hurt stocks and concludes US big tech and AI semiconductors can absorb about one 25bp hike because AI capex economics, free cash flow and corporate bond demand remain intact. He sees the Korean semiconductor selloff as an overreaction to rates given improved Samsung and SK hynix fundamentals, with Nvidia $180 and Alphabet $300 as key AI barometers and 10-year yields near 5-6% as the critical threshold.

Jackson Hole signals data-dependent Fed policy; market attention shifts to JOLTS, payrolls and CPI.
US big tech rate sensitivity is seen as smaller than feared, supported by AI capex ROIC around 20% and strong bond demand.
Korean semiconductor shares lag US peers despite improved Samsung and SK hynix fundamentals and supply shortages.
Nvidia near $180 and Alphabet near $300 are flagged as key levels for the AI trade.
Oracle is highlighted as a leveraged weak link in big tech capex financing.
A 10-year Treasury yield nearing 5-6% is identified as the critical stress threshold for AI and big tech.

Ideas

Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 12:22

Big tech can absorb one rate hike.

US big tech can absorb roughly one 25bp Fed hike because AI capex economics remain intact: hyperscaler ROIC is around 20%, above weighted average cost of capital, corporate bond issuance is being met with roughly 4x demand, and rate sensitivity from July peaks was modest. Critical debt stress would require 10-year yields near 5-6%, two consecutive hikes, or 50bp plus oil at $120, and those conditions are not present now.

Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 14:54

Oracle's debt-funded capex makes it risky.

Oracle is identified as the weak link in big tech AI capex financing because it is funding nearly all of its investment with debt, unlike Amazon, Alphabet and Meta which debt-fund only about 20-30% of capex. This high leverage makes Oracle persistently risky and explains why its stock does not rebound even when other big tech holds up.

Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 22:07

Watch 10-year yield nearing five-to-six percent.

Kim identifies the critical threshold as the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5-6%; at that point big tech debt-funded AI capex becomes stressed and could break the equity story. He believes policymakers also know this threshold and would respond, so it is the key level to monitor for whether the AI and big tech trade can continue absorbing higher rates.

Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 26:16

AI semiconductor rate fears are overdone.

At Treasury yields roughly equal to late July, US AI/semiconductor leaders such as Nvidia and Micron are actually higher, and SK hynix ADR has reacted appropriately to fundamentals; the speaker argues rate-driven AI semiconductor worries are overdone outside Korea's local market.

Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 26:36

Korean memory semi fundamentals improved; oversold.

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have improved fundamentals versus late July: Samsung said supply shortages may persist through 2028 and LTA coverage is being raised above the prior 60-70% range, yet their shares sit below late-July levels while Micron, Nvidia and US big tech are higher at similar Treasury yields. Kim sees Korea as overreacting to rate fears and ignoring improving memory fundamentals.

Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 29:29

Watch Nvidia $180, Alphabet $300 levels.

Kim uses Nvidia and Alphabet as the two fundamental barometers for AI capex economics. If Nvidia threatens the roughly $180 moving average and Alphabet breaks down through about $300, he would treat that as a warning that the AI trade has a real issue; currently these levels are far enough away that rate-hike fears are overblown.

Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 31:57

Amazon rallies on Anthropic legal win.

Amazon rose 4% on Friday despite rate concerns because Anthropic, its strategic AI partner and investee, won a legal victory against the US Department of Defense supply-chain restriction. Kim interprets this as the market focusing on company-specific AI fundamentals rather than macro rates, making Amazon a positive fundamental story tied to Anthropic's revival.

Semiconductors are fine even if interest rates rise? Focus on AI investment and big tech fundamentals | Kim Jang-yeol, Head of Research Center, Unistory Asset Management

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