AI Winners vs Losers on Wall Street | Open Interest 02/11/2026
Speakers
Dan Ives — Wedbush Securities
— Wedbush analyst
Chris Cocks — CEO, Hasbro
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- The US labor market posted a massive beat with 130k jobs added in January (vs. 65k est), pushing unemployment down to 4.3%. This reinforces a "Goldilocks" soft-landing narrative but pushes rate cut expectations from June to July.
- A clear bifurcation is emerging in the toy sector: Hasbro is thriving on "kidult" gaming/collectors (Magic: The Gathering), while Mattel is crashing on weak holiday sales and traditional toy fatigue.
- The "AI Trade" is shifting from pure hardware to software/use-cases. Dan Ives argues the "SaaS Apocalypse" is a myth and predicts an $8-10 multiplier for software stocks for every $1 spent on Nvidia chips.
- Defense spending is entering a secular bull market driven by "wartime footing" and supply chain re-shoring, with former Speaker McCarthy highlighting the need for industrial base expansion.
Trade Ideas
Ives calls the recent software selloff ("SaaS Apocalypse") a "knee-jerk" reaction. He notes hyperscalers are committing $650B+ to CapEx this year. The market is wrongly assuming AI models (Anthropic/OpenAI) will replace enterprise software. In reality, AI requires the "hearts and lungs" of established data layers (Salesforce, ServiceNow, Oracle) to function. Ives cites a multiplier effect: for every $1 spent on NVDA, $8-10 will eventually flow to software/infrastructure. LONG. Buy the dip in marquee software names and cloud infrastructure providers. Enterprise spending slowdowns or faster-than-expected displacement of legacy SaaS by AI agents.
Mattel holiday sales fell; shares indicated down nearly 30%. The company is suffering from "toy fatigue" and lacks the high-margin, recurring revenue engine that Hasbro has in gaming. SHORT. The divergence between "gaming/collectors" (HAS) and "traditional toys" (MAT) is widening. Oversold bounce or potential M&A rumors.
Hasbro revenue grew 14%, driven by a 60% surge in "Magic: The Gathering." The CEO notes 70-80% of their business is now focused on "Kidults" (collectors/adult gamers). Unlike traditional toys (Mattel), Hasbro's core demographic (adult collectors) has a stronger balance sheet, is less price-sensitive, and is not exposed to tariffs (Magic cards are printed in the USA). This creates a recession-resistant moat. LONG. Superior demographic positioning vs. competitors. Consumer discretionary spending pullback among adults.
Ford expects profits to jump this year despite a $900M tariff hit in 2025. They are increasing CapEx to $10.5B. Management is signaling confidence in pricing power and demand for high-margin SUVs/Trucks (F-Series) to offset tariff headwinds. The "profit jump" guidance contradicts the bearish narrative around legacy auto. LONG. Contrarian play on legacy auto resilience. Labor costs, EV division losses, or escalating trade wars.
Robinhood reported lower Q4 profit; stock down ~10%. Crypto trading revenue dropped 38%. The company's growth is heavily tethered to retail crypto speculation (Bitcoin/Altcoins). With crypto volumes cooling and prices volatile, the earnings engine is sputtering despite stock price run-up over the last year. SHORT. Valuation has detached from the reality of slowing transaction volumes. A sudden resurgence in retail crypto mania or meme stock activity.
Lyft shares plunging 16.5% in pre-market. Global expansion is "not going as expected." Execution errors in growth strategy are being punished severely by the market. SHORT. Broken growth narrative. Potential acquisition target at lower valuations.
North America returned to growth; Running category back to double-digit growth. Wholesale strategy is being revitalized. The CEO is explicitly pivoting back to wholesale partners (Macy's, etc.) after the previous direct-to-consumer strategy alienated customers. This "correction" is starting to show up in the numbers. LONG. Turnaround execution is validated by data. Highly competitive athletic footwear market (Hoka/On Running).
Ouster acquired Stereo Labs to combine Lidar with camera technology. AI is moving from "screens to machines" (Physical AI). Robots/Autonomy require both depth perception (Lidar) and texture recognition (Cameras). Consolidating these sensors creates a "full stack" vision solution for the booming robotics/industrial automation sector. LONG. Play on the "Physical AI" megatrend. Cash burn and high competition in the sensor market.
Kevin McCarthy
Former Speaker of the House / Board Member, Ignium
NATO and the US are increasing defense spending. McCarthy notes we are on a "wartime footing" regarding industrial supply chains. The government is actively seeking to expand the industrial base beyond just the prime contractors (Lockheed/Boeing) to smaller suppliers and new platforms (like Ignium). This signals a secular tailwind for the entire defense supply chain. LONG. Geopolitical tension ensures sustained government funding. Budget gridlock in Washington (though McCarthy downplays this).
Dani Burger
Anchor, Bloomberg Television
Vertiv shares surging 15.4% on strong demand from hyperscalers. As Big Tech spends $650B+ on AI infrastructure (data centers), they require massive power and cooling solutions. Vertiv is a "pick and shovel" play on this physical infrastructure build-out. LONG. Direct beneficiary of the CapEx super-cycle mentioned by Ives. Valuation concerns after rapid run-up.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 11, 2026, features Dan Ives, Dani Burger, Chris Cocks, Matt Miller, Elliott Hill, Angus Pacala, Kevin McCarthy discussing NOW, PLTR, MSFT, ORCL, GOOG, CRM, MAT, HAS, F, HOOD, LYFT, NKE, OUST, ITA, VRT. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Dan Ives, Dani Burger, Chris Cocks, Matt Miller, Elliott Hill, Angus Pacala, Kevin McCarthy · Tickers: NOW, PLTR, MSFT, ORCL, GOOG, CRM, MAT, HAS, F, HOOD, LYFT, NKE, OUST, ITA, VRT