The Next Michael Burry | Animal Spirits 480
Спикеры
Michael Batnick
— Управляющий партнер, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Ben Carlson
— Директор по институциональному управлению активами, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss the AI capex and debt boom, arguing that massive AI spending could keep the US economy out of recession this decade. They also cover the sharp software recovery and possible dead-cat bounce, broadening earnings growth beyond the Mag7, bull-market asset manager M&A, rising bond yields, Gen Z housing demand, and healthy BNPL credit through Affirm. The overall tone emphasizes uncertainty and a middle-ground view on AI rather than extreme bubble or crash forecasts.
- They analyze AI capex debt stories and argue huge AI spending could keep the US economy out of recession this decade.
- They note software stocks and IGV nearly round-tripped but flag the possibility of a dead-cat bounce.
- Rich Bernstein data shows expected earnings growth broadening beyond the Mag7, and S&P 493 net margins are rising.
- They view asset manager M&A as classic bull-market behavior with a reasonable business case.
- They discuss why rising Treasury yields may be justified by nominal growth, deficits and government spending.
- They examine Redfin generational data and predict Gen Z homebuying will surge in the 2030s.
- They highlight Affirm's low delinquencies as evidence the consumer is not tapped out.
- They note Korea's leveraged single-stock ETF mania collapsed after regulatory tightening.
Идеи
AI capex keeps US economy growing.
Massive AI capex and debt spending, with 2026 AI debt issuance projected near $600 billion and future capex near $1 trillion per year, is acting as a powerful economic stimulus. Unless the AI capex story completely collapses or an external shock hits, the US economy is unlikely to experience a recession for the rest of the 2020s.
Software rally may be dead-cat bounce.
Software stocks suffered a severe drawdown and have nearly round-tripped, with IGV less than 7% from its highs. The recovery was extremely violent, and the rally could easily be a dead-cat bounce, so the setup is worth monitoring rather than chasing.
Non-Mag7 margins expanding; be bullish.
S&P 500 ex-Mag7 net margins have expanded from below 11% in late 2023 to 13.6%, with projections near 15% by Q4 2027. Because AI-driven benefits should flow beyond the Mag7, investors should be bullish on the rest of the market rather than only the largest AI names.
Asset managers attractive in bull market.
Recent acquisitions of asset and wealth managers, custodians and related firms by Vanguard, Goldman Sachs, Victory Capital and others are classic bull-market behavior. Asset management is a good business with high margins and a built-in market-driven growth kicker, so these deals probably make sense as markets grow.
Korean levered ETF trade is over.
South Korea's single-stock leveraged ETF boom tied to Samsung and SK hynix collapsed after regulators imposed onerous simulated trading requirements. Turnover fell from a peak of nearly $50 billion to basically zero in a week, so that retail leverage mania is over and those vehicles should be avoided.
Rising yields justified; long bonds unattractive.
Rising long-term Treasury yields are not a disorderly crisis signal. With incomes and spending rising about 7% per year and large deficits, tax cuts and government spending in place, yields near 5% reflect normal nominal growth, making long-term fixed income less attractive unless growth and inflation collapse sharply.
Gen Z will buy homes in 2030s.
Gen Z homeownership is currently in line with Millennials at the same age, and Gen Z is more financially savvy than prior generations. As baby boomers begin dying in large waves during the 2030s, Gen Z will move into prime homebuying years, supporting a surge in US housing demand.
Affirm healthy; consumer not tapped.
Affirm has recovered strongly from its post-2021 crash to a roughly $24 billion market cap, while 30-day delinquencies remain low at about 2.5%. This suggests the BNPL consumer is not tapped out and the bearish consumer-credit thesis was wrong.
Далее
This The Compound News video, published September 02, 2026, features Michael Batnick, Ben Carlson discussing SPY, IGV, S&P 493, KCE, Korean single-stock leveraged ETFs, 10-Year Treasury Note, US Housing, AFRM. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Michael Batnick, Ben Carlson · Tickers: SPY, IGV, S&P 493, KCE, Korean single-stock leveraged ETFs, 10-Year Treasury Note, US Housing, AFRM